Archive for Peak Oil

Jun
17

Is Conservation the Cure?

Posted by: writ of summons | Comments (3)

toyota_prius008It seems so obvious. If everyone uses less oil, via sexy hybrid cars, or on the dole public transport, we’ll actually burn less gas, drill fewer seabeds, spill less lube and spew less carbon into the atmosphere. But if you said that, you’ve never met a man named Jevons. For he would tell you one thing: efficiency improvemnts only create more demand for the very fuel you’re trying to conserve.

If conservation is not the answer, what about generating new sources of fuel from crops? The 2005 Renewable Fuel Standard mandates greater biofuel usage over time and provides tax credits for biofuel producers. That ain’t no unfunded mandate. Problem solved. Just one thing. For biodiesel, the Renewable Fuel Standard never gets biodiesel beyond 5% of diesel fuel supply. So now all the sexy new diesels coming on the market (which are about 25% more efficient than their gasoline siblings) won’t accommodate anything more than B5 (5% biodiesel, 95% regular diesel). Never mind that my 1976 diesel Mercedes runs B100 without a problem (though 35 year old cars do encounter problems.) In that sense diesel engine technology has gone backwards, with Congressional approval.
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May
28

President Peeking at Peak Oil

Posted by: writ of summons | Comments (28)

53900178Yesterday, President Obama gave a press conference at the White House on the BP Oil disaster in the Gulf. After weeks of building criticism over the administration’s handling of the crisis, the President was able to give a more robust explanation the administration’s efforts, capabilities, and vision for the future. I will leave the debate about the handling of this crisis to you, the readers, should you wish to engage in it. Please feel free to make your thoughts known in the comments. What struck me was this little gem:

“Now, let me make one broader point, though, about energy. The fact that oil companies now have to go a mile underwater and then drill another three miles below that in order to hit oil tells us something about the direction of the oil industry. Extraction is more expensive and it is going to be inherently more risky.

And so that’s part of the reason you never heard me say, ‘Drill, baby, drill’ — because we can’t drill our way out of the problem. It may be part of the mix as a bridge to a transition to new technologies and new energy sources, but we should be pretty modest in understanding that the easily accessible oil has already been sucked up out of the ground.

And as we are moving forward, the technology gets more complicated, the oil sources are more remote, and that means that there’s probably going to end up being more risk. And we as a society are going to have to make some very serious determinations in terms of what risks are we willing to accept. And that’s part of what the commission I think is going to have to look at.”

And the day before, the President at a Fremont, California facility that manufactures solar panels:

“And the spill in the Gulf, which is just heartbreaking, only underscores the necessity of seeking alternative fuel sources. We’re not going to transition out of oil next year or 10 years from now. But think about it, part of what’s happening in the Gulf is that oil companies are drilling a mile underwater before they hit ground, and then a mile below that before they hit oil.

With the increased risks, the increased costs, it gives you a sense of where we’re going. We’re not going to be able to sustain this kind of fossil fuel use. This planet can’t sustain it. Think about when China and India — where consumers there are starting to buy cars and use energy the way we are. So we’ve known that we’ve had to shift in a fundamental way, and that’s true for all of us.”

From these remarks, it is clear that the administration is starting to at least take a peek at Peak Oil. Over at the Energy Information Agency, which just put out their annual forecast a couple weeks ago, world supply of liquid fuels will increase through 2035. Though the report hints at Peak Oil through higher real price forecasts and a larger proportions of biofuels or adding other “unconventional sources” to the mix while keeping “conventional” liquids flat. The administration is not yet connecting the peak oil dots, publicly anyway.

And perhaps they shouldn’t. The most important thing to do is to change the mindset of the American people about energy. We have a long way to go on that. The last President to wear a sweater in the White House to conserve energy was the last President to wear a sweater in the White House to conserve energy. That was thirty years and five Presidents ago. The blackened Gulf should become a symbol far more powerful than a presidential sweater to be used in moving us off oil. If tarred beaches don’t get our attention then the next stop is drowned beaches — drowned by the rising sea level caused by anthropogenic global warming caused by indiscriminate burning of fossil fuels.

Full Press Conference transcript.

Full transcript of Solar Plant speech.

Full 2010 Energy Information Agency Annual Energy Outlook Report.

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May
21

Strive Not to Drive – Day Five

Posted by: Gordon Smith | Comments (8)

Rained out.

I asked a dear friend how she goes about multi-modaling on days like today. She told me she wears a rain jacket, rain pants, and sandals. Further, she told me that she works at a job where it’s o.k. to look gross. As I don’t have that sort of gear and need to look semi-presentable at various locations today, I hopped in my truck today to do my thing.

It was a wonderful week. I walked, biked, and took transit Monday through Thursday. I’m excited to continue these choices and to schedule my time with multi-modal transportation in mind.

I’ll also need to purchase some more gear!

Thanks, Asheville, for a week to remember.

May
11

Strive Not To Drive

Posted by: Gordon Smith | Comments Comments Off

SNtD week runs from Monday, May 17 – Friday, May 21. Lots more information to come. Sign up here.

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Nov
25

Sustainable Las Vegas

Posted by: writ of summons | Comments (4)

citycenter_2I was recently on the floor of the Luxor walking in between craps and blackjack tables when I seemed to have gotten the most absurd idea in my head: Sustainable Las Vegas.  I thought about whether there might be an organization advocating for a more sustainable way of doing things in the Sin City.  But the mere juxtaposition of the word sustainable with Las Vegas made me burst into seemingly uncontrollable laughter.  Since I was by myself and there were at least a hundred people around me, I tried to regain my composure.  As I did I thought, “Well, if the idea doesn’t pass the laugh test, that means my gut is telling me that this whole place is going the way of The Sands1, and probably sooner than later.”  Is that the case?

I think of Las Vegas as living off of three major resources.  These are oil, water, and illusion.  While the last is virtually inexhaustible, the first two are finite and currently buckling under increasing pressure to supply a growing and resource intensive population worldwide.  So let me first deal with illusion.

An illusion will appears after the jump… Read More→

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Oct
10

Bike Story

Posted by: Gordon Smith | Comments (1)

This video documents how Boulder, Colorado planned for multimodal transportation and implemented a high-functioning bike system. Let’s learn these lessons and make it happen here in Asheville.

http://www.vimeo.com/6666520

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Jul
08

Pickens Plan One Year Later

Posted by: writ of summons | Comments (1)

One year ago today, oil maven and sometimes Republican political activist T. Boone Pickens announced a novel plan to dramatically reduce foreign oil consumption in the United States.  The plan outlined a strategy to displace foreign oil by using domestic natural gas as a transportation fuel.  The area where natural gas would have the largest immediate impact is in the trucking sector.  In order to ensure adequate supply of natural gas, Pickens proposed a dramatic increase in clean wind  electricity to displace electricity generated by natural gas power plants.

The plan is appealing but challenging.  It is appealing because it points us to two energy sources that the United States has in abundance: wind and natural gas.  Challenging because it requires very big changes to our infrastructure to make it happen.  That wind power will make up a huge proportion of our electricity supply is obvious.  But it will take decades and it is more likely to displace coal than natural gas generation.  Truck engine makers are starting to offer CNG based engines, but it will be a long time before fleets adopt these engines in any great numbers.  In terms of the passenger car market, there is only one CNG based vehicle on showroom floors: the Honda Civic GX.  Then there is what I call the alternative fuel paradox.  Higher adoption of alternative fuels will drive up the price of that fuel and drive down the price of traditional petroleum, thereby slowing alternative fuel adoption.  Finally, it admittedly does not address the carbon issue, though CNG would burn far cleaner in trucks as opposed to diesel.

Even though I have some doubts, I went ahead and signed myself up on PickensPlan.com today.  Since it is the one year anniversary of his announcement, he labeling July 8th as Energy Independence Day.  Having listened to this guy for the least year, I can say I am a lot more educated on America’s energy situation than I was.  It might be worth taking a look just for that.

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May
07

Strive Not To Drive

Posted by: Gordon Smith | Comments (1)

Coming next week…

A hundred transit-minded Ashevillains are wandering around the Asheville Civic Center’s banquet room looking at route maps, taking surveys, and gearing up for the Transit presentation.  If you’re interested, the session lasts until 7pm and folks are encouraged to come by at any point.  This Master Plan process is expected to culminate in July with a comprehensive, complimentary plan for the future of the way we move people through our city.  Cyclists and Scooterists, Bussers and Pedestrians are here to help shape our City’s transportation future.

If you haven’t taken the Transit survey, do it now:  TRANSIT SURVEY

Stay tuned.  More updates after the jump.

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Sep
23

Ain’t Got No Gas

Posted by: Gordon Smith | Comments (8)

Tell anyone in western North Carolina that Shell was bagged, and they’ll know what you mean.  I’m lubing up my neglected bicycle to serve until the petrol is flowing again.  It’s good for me, but I can ride to work.  I’m wondering if there will be a rash of siphoning this week, leaving folks who filled their tanks in long lines shaking their fists at befumed thieves.

Categories : Energy, Local, Peak Oil
Comments (8)