Oh if you’re a bird, be an early bird
BySpeaking of Republicans, the North Carolina primary is only 111 days away, and I haven’t heard much in the way of revival music coming out of the GOP’s little tent lately. This time two years ago, Carl Mumpower already had his congressional primary campaign in full swing (in fact, I think we had even cut his TV commercial by now) — but aside from a few lackluster appearances from a partial complement of candidates, there hasn’t been much to tell me that anybody is doing much on the Republican side.
There are six guys that I’m aware of who are vying for the dubious honor of taking on Heath Shuler: Dan Eichenbaum, James J. Howard, Ed Krause, Greg Newman, Scott Stump, and Kenny West. Only two have active websites (Eichenbaum and Howard) and West’s Facebook page seems to have dried up and blown away — although you can see a cached version here. From what I’m told, Greg Newman hasn’t showed up to either of the two forums held so far (which were apparently poorly attended), and when it’s not regurgitating press releases from the Tea Party folks, the Buncombe County GOP‘s website doesn’t tell me much either.
What gives, guys? I may be missing something, but if if a political dork like me hasn’t heard anything about you, chances are the average voter hasn’t either. Maybe you didn’t get the memo, but New Media isn’t so new anymore: doing things the way they were done 20 years ago just won’t cut it. Didn’t you learn anything from 2008? I’d suggest y’all take it up a notch — or not: for my money, it’s a losing proposition anyway. Given who’s in and who’s out, I’m convinced that the only Republican who could possibly beat Shuler this cycle would have to be a young, attractive, articulate and wealthy white woman. Frankly, the rest of you all may as well just stay home.
In other congressional race news, Burke County businessman Vance Patterson and Iredell County Commissioner Scott Keadle, both uber-conservatives, are challenging three term Congressman Patrick McHenry in the 10th Congressional District. McHenry has a pretty solid following among party regulars out there, but I know a lot of Republicans who can’t stand him, so that might-could get interesting in a NY-23 sort of way. Speaking of the 10th, Rutherford County Republican Party Chairman Mike Hagar plans a run against incumbent Democratic Assemblyman Bob England in North Carolina’s 112th House District. Hagar’s young, extremely likable, and full of energy — but he’ll have a tough go of it because of some clever line drawing. The economically hard-hit, racially more diverse and Democratically held town of Rutherfordton sits plum in the middle of the 112th, but is carved out 10th Congressional district, sitting over here in the 11th. This makes the 112th a whole lot less Republican than the 10th congressional district as a whole, a problem for Hagar.
Closer to home, we have Republican John Carroll running against incumbent Susan Fisher in the 114th (Carroll ran unsuccessfully for the Buncombe County Board of Commissioners last year) and Republican Tim Moffitt in a rematch with newly-minted NC Representative Jane Whilden in the 116th.
I was on the trail with John, and of all the Republicans I’ve met in Western North Carolina, he enjoys campaigning the most and is the best at it. And the GOP smells blood now, especially in the wake of the Fisher’s present junket troubles. Voters (from both parties) don’t cotton to professional politicians going on fancy trips to the South Pacific on the taxpayer dime, especially in the middle of the coldest winter in recent memory and — more to the point — when so many of us are out of work and struggling just to put food on the table. I think that this was an awful PR blunder on Susan Fisher’s part, and the damage control coming from Hawaii just sounds like arrogant bullshit to me. While there are certainly more important things we should be worried about, issues like this have a way of sticking in peoples’ craws. Conservatives will make as much poi as possible out of it — in fact, it’s already begun, and rather cleverly I might say. The Tea Party folks are organizing a welcoming committee at the airport for when the tanned trio returns: I’m seeing grass skirts and leis all over the news already. Voters might have short memories…but not that short. This could very well prove to be Fisher’s undoing come November.
Conservative Tim Moffitt spent a buttload of money to try and hold on to the seat long-held by Republicans in the conservative 116th — and he came within just 1,300 votes of defeating Whilden — the closest race, as I recall, in all of Western North Carolina. Moffitt ran a good campaign…had the Buncombe County GOP not been so crippled by its own internal divisions, cast of crazies, lack of organization and fundraising ability, I’m confident Moffitt would have won that race — despite the Democratic sweep. He knows it, and he’s trying again.
All these factors, coupled with the typical off-year blowback dynamics and a struggling economy, will benefit both Carroll and Moffitt, who are both successful businessmen. Should be fun to watch.
38 Comments
January 13th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
I wonder if Gantt etal after “During our time here, we have already interacted with other airport representatives, key National leaders (U.S. Senate Appropriations Chairman, Daniel Inouye” will be wanting to acquire these with federal funding… http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080606/a_bodyscan06.art.htm Of course they are lying… http://www.cnn.com/2010/TRAVEL/01/11/body.scanners/index.html and… http://noworldsystem.com/2010/01/06/full-body-scanners-increase-cancer-risk/ and also… http://www.infowars.com/full-body-scanners-used-on-air-passengers-may-damage-human-dna/ as well as… http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/are-planned-airport-scanners-just-a-scam-1856175.html
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January 13th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Funny to see my comments under “0 comments”is this thing working?
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January 14th, 2010 at 12:34 am
Fundraising problems I hear. Supposedly, Erika Franzi is setting up a PAC to help out. Haven’t ran into any of the Mountain Leadership PAC folks in a while so I don’t know what’s up with them. Other than that, Eichenbaum got some guy named Matthew Hoagland to head up his campaign. Sounded like he was a college kid but I can’t confirm that…
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January 14th, 2010 at 9:10 am
Jim,
You might want to check out the comments policy. If you include a bunch of links in your comment, it’ll often go to the queue. This is to protect against spam.
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January 14th, 2010 at 9:17 am
Jim, a few comments on form: typically, I don’t think that people click on non-contextual links. It might be helpful to your case if you were to provide a few original sentences giving the gist of what the source says, and then link out for more information.
Also, we encourage folks to use the “href” tag. HTML can be a little daunting, but it’s actually very easy to use, pretties up your comments, and increases the likelihood others will actually click on your link. If you have questions on how to use it, email me at mullermail@mac.com and I’d be happy to explain it further.
MM
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January 14th, 2010 at 12:35 pm
Mike-
“I’m convinced that the only Republican who could possibly beat Shuler this cycle would have to be a young, attractive, articulate and wealthy white woman.”
Just a thought, Mike but are you suggesting Erika Franzi run against Shuler? I’ve thought this for a while…
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January 14th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
John,
Erika Franzi has accomplished more singlehandedly in the last year as an activist than all of the other Republicans combined here in Buncombe County have in the last five — certainly more than the GOP itself, which in my opinion has largely devolved into a dysfunctional social group of zealots, hacks and wannabees. I’ve spoken with Erika about running for elected office, and she assures me that she is happy where she is, doing what she’s doing. For now.
My sense though is that a “Tea Party” congressional candidate cannot not win a general election in the 11th, however spotless or likable or capable they are personally (as is Erika). There are too many fringe elements associated with the movement here who would provide easy fodder for the opposition.
For Republicans to win in a general election, they need to put forth a candidate who has bipartisan appeal, preferably from Buncombe, and who can’t be pegged as a nutjob — politically someone like a Nathan Ramsey or a Charles Thomas. I do have someone in mind, of course. But for right now, she’s staying quiet.
The February 26th filing deadline is only 43 days away. A lot could happen by then. Or not.
MM
P.S. I’ve met Matthew Hoagland, and he seems like a nice enough chap. But a race of this caliber takes someone with a lot of campaign experience, a professional who has actually won elections in this century for Republicans, and who has a good working knowledge of the district — which is enormous and diverse. I’ve heard through the grapevine — speaking of nutjobs — that Don Yelton is a strategic advisor to Eichenbaum, which (if it’s true) almost guarantees disaster for the good doctor. Don was the chief strategic advisor to failed congressional candidate John Armor in the ’08 Republican primary (Armor didn’t crack 20% as I recall) and Don has run for office more times and lost than most people have voted in their entire lives. It would be funny if it weren’t so tragic.
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January 14th, 2010 at 7:25 pm
“too many fringe elements…”
Bit of an understatement there, Mike.
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January 15th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Actually, Don Yelton was not the chief strategic advisor to my husband, John Armor. I was. It was an awkward situation because Don is a close personal friend of Carl Mumpower, but Michael and Carl did their best not to spread that information around. It’s lovely to be out of the whole situation now, but rather odd to see MM playing the “above the whole nasty situation” advisor, given his role in the ’08 campaign. He can get as down and dirty as the next guy, as we found out to our dismay.
January 15th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
I just knocked 30 points off my estimation of Dr Eichenbaum’s IQ for having Mr Yelton as a strategist. Of course, Eichenbaum could be playing the George Costanza Gambit, and doing the opposite of whatever Mr Yelton advises.
If that is the case, then I’d subtract 10 points to my estimation of his IQ on the theory that just having Yelton associated with the campaign is a PR disaster waiting to happen.
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January 16th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
Michelle my dear, politics is a contact sport. If you’re not prepared to win, you shouldn’t play.
MM
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January 16th, 2010 at 6:46 pm
I think Shuler preformed better for North Carolinians during his first stint in Washington… as a Redskin. I remember he opposed NAFTA during the last race because it sent jobs to China. Mr. Shuler NAFTA is the NORTH AMERICAN free trade agreement. He’s a total yes man. The 11 district needs someone who will stir the pot.
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January 17th, 2010 at 6:02 am
It’s fascinating, Mark, because Shuler was hardly a Yes Man when he voted against Health Care Reform, against hate crimes legislation, against SCHIP, etc.
Judging from your capitalization strategy, I’m guessing you’re of either the Republican or a Libertarian persuation. Which of the candidates will you support in the primary?
How does that person embody your desire for a pot-stirrer?
Thanks for coming by.
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January 17th, 2010 at 8:52 am
Y’all prolly know by now that Hendersonville businessman and Honor Air founder Jeff Miller has jumped (back) into the NC-11 GOP race. His announcement changes the calculus entirely.
Miller is the only Republican candidate who can beat Shuler in the fall: he’s smart, likable, well-respected, and has both great name recognition and broad bipartisan appeal (if he were a woman, he’d be a shoo-in). The real question is: can Miller get through an off-year primary in a party that’s largely controlled by crazies? I’m thinking that we’re about to see a battle royale between the Tea Party/Stomper/Libertarian/Assorted Wingnuts faction (who will support Eichenbaum) and the more mainstream Republicans and veterans, who will support Miller.
If Republicans knew what was good for them — and with all due respect — the other six candidates would bow out gracefully right now and focus their energies on promoting Jeff Miller around the 11th District. He’s their only hope come November.
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January 17th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Oh, this is going to be so much fun. Let the games begin.
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January 18th, 2010 at 7:45 am
So they have, Mojo. Gary Shoemaker, Membership Director of the Buncombe County GOP, seems to be endorsing Eichenbaum for Congress. Gary was an ardent supporter of Ron Paul in the the ’08 prez primary. (Thanks to Bobby Coggins for the tip. Source link and the whole juicy exchange here.)
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January 18th, 2010 at 9:58 am
Mike-
Not so fast on the Tea Party support for Eichenbaum. I got grapevine of my own that says Jeff Miller and sometime local defense contractor Bernhard Conrad are good buddies. And Mr. Conrad’s favorite daughter’s name is…(drum roll please)…Erika CONRAD Franzi. Granted, a vague connection but a connection none the less. I think this is going to be a interesting primary…
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January 18th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Even better, thanks for the links.
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January 18th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
John,
I know Erika well enough to know that she’ll be making up her own mind thankyouverymuch
And I have nothing but respect and affection for Erika, whatever we might disagree on. But frankly, I can’t see the Tea Party group itself not endorsing Eichenbaum — he’s one of their own.
On the other hand, I could just be talking out of my ass: I’ve never met Dr. Eichenbaum and I’ve also been out of the loop for a while. He seems like a rather pleasant fellow, actually, unlike many of his rabid supporters. So who knows.
The special election tomorrow in Massachusetts is potentially another factor in all of this. A win by Scott Brown (which I predict will happen, by at least 5 points) will certainly embolden the Tea Party folks here in Western North Carolina, which may have an effect on the patterns in our GOP primary.
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January 21st, 2010 at 1:01 pm
I expect I’ll be supporting Eichenbaum.
The Asheville Tea Party PAC will be identifying, assessing and endorsing local candidates soon based on a set of questions and a committee determination.
Erika Franzi’s father Bernhard Conrad is not good buddies with Jeff Miller.
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January 21st, 2010 at 1:04 pm
It was so nice spending this time together.
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January 21st, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Welcome back, Tim! Be sure to read the comments policy!
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January 21st, 2010 at 4:01 pm
Interesting article in U.S. News & World Report today: Fallout From Scott Brown’s Win Reaches N.C. Democrats. Money shot:
Although I haven’t seen the raw numbers from PPP, a reliable source in the position to know tells me it ain’t bullshit. Shuler’s more and more vulnerable each day, especially now with Miller back in. And Governor-in-waiting Pat McCrory might be well-advised to invest in a good tape measure. Drapes and all that.
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January 21st, 2010 at 5:38 pm
“Erika Franzi’s father Bernhard Conrad is not good buddies with Jeff Miller.”
So it’s OK to be DEFENSE CONTRACTOR – you Ron Paul types claiming to be against the Military Industrial Complex and all – as long as he isn’t friends with Jeff Miller? Well, I guess I’ll just have to take your word for it, Tim.
Oh, and if anybody hasn’t seen this yet:
http://www.governmentcontractswon.com/department/defense/conrad_industries_003165719.asp?yr=08
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:46 am
Just to put rumors here to rest, Don Yelton is not associated in any way shape or form with my husband’s (Dr. Dan Eichenbaum) campaign.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 4:56 pm
Rhonda,
Thank you for the correction. I apologize to you and Dr. Eichenbaum if my associating the campaign with Don Yelton has in any way hindered the success of your fundraising efforts
Thanks for reading and we hope both you and the good doctor will make an appearance from time to time! And despite rumors to the contrary, we’re a pretty fun bunch around here.
MM
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January 23rd, 2010 at 7:14 pm
I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t want Yelton on board…
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January 26th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
Wow. I was wondering if anyone else had noticed the CONRAD connection. I suspect this is the real reason Erika CONRAD Franzi suddenly appeared on the local political landscape as “Jane Q. Republican”. Where was Janeq when the previous administration was in office?
This is my new favorite blog…Thanks Gordon.
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January 27th, 2010 at 3:57 pm
Matt-
Oh yeah, man. It took a second but a few folks noticed. I know a couple of hard core Ron Paul liberty types who want nothing more to do with Erika because of it. Same folks I got the Jeff Miller rumor from in fact.
Funny that Tim Peck has nothing more to say on the subject. Anyone else ever seen him go away that easy?
If anyone wants to give Conrad Inc a taste of their own tonic and protest the factory let me know?
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January 28th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
“Erika Franzi has accomplished more single handedly in the last year”. Yes, when daddy says that the family business is imperiled by the current administration, you get moving to save your piece of the pie.
“she assures me that she is happy where she is, doing what she’s doing. For now”. I know for a fact that Erika has been drooling over this very post… For obvious reasons, I read her blog and noted that she’s hinted …
The business connection is a sensitive issue… in the past the only posting on her blog with the “comments off” was a post connecting her to daddy. Later, when she couldn’t take the heat from “trolls” did she convert the entire blog to a “no comments” format.
…a protest at the Conrad businesses… that would be fun. I might even be up for that!
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January 28th, 2010 at 10:43 pm
As a Ron Paul supporter I don’t believe a single Iraqi,Afghani,pakistani etc. HAS DIED due to a Conrad Industries patch on a uniform, quite a stretch to assume the “family business” is “emperiled”(?) by the current administration when Obama have only expanded the “war” on a country that only followed previous U.S. foreign policy.
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January 28th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
That’s Obama HAS ( I really need to proof read before posting)
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January 29th, 2010 at 12:17 am
It seems my prediction at #1 seems to be accurate “Gantt said he talked to officials about airport-security measures, including body scanners”
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January 29th, 2010 at 6:01 pm
I’ll stick by my assessment that Conrad Industries would feel “imperiled by the current administration”.
If the current administration is able enact campaign promises it will:
1) Likely restore the Conrad income tax rates back to the pre-2001 levels.
2) Reinstate some limitations on deductions or personal exemption they may take.
3) Healthcare reform would incur additional expense, since they are an employer.
4) Stop tax breaks for sending jobs overseas. Conrad Industries has factories in Mexico and China.
No one suggested that “a single Iraqi,Afghani,pakistani etc. HAS DIED due to a Conrad Industries patch”. It’s a bit unsavory to even suggest it. I have my disagreements with Erika, but I wouldn’t go that far.
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January 30th, 2010 at 9:31 am
Jim- The point is that Erika’s family profits from war regardless of who serves as president. The more dead U.S. soldiers – the more CONRAD patches needed. Same with any military product…
Matt-
“…a protest at the Conrad businesses… that would be fun. I might even be up for that!”
Looks like ThunderPig already made the offer over immigration:
http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2008/10/area-manufacturers-withdraw-mumpower.html
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January 30th, 2010 at 11:12 am
Jim- Thanks for the link. So Erika’s claim to be tough on illegal immigration is empty– the family is for cheap Mexican labor either way: here or at the factory in Mexico…
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January 30th, 2010 at 11:31 am
Matt & John,
With all due respect, I know that Erika Franzi’s views are more informed by her experience as a wife and mother than by any business her father is involved in. Trust me, she’s very much her own person.
Disagree with her on the issues or on policy — but I’d leave the politics of personal destruction to the Carolina Stompers and their ilk.
Just my opinion.
MM
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January 30th, 2010 at 12:45 pm
-Michael: Thanks for you comment.
My point is simple: Google her name or moniker. Her daily output is the equivalent of a small PR firm. My in box is regularly flooded with forwards from her postings (I’ve got a load of conservative friends who want to “convert” me). That got me to thinking–what motivated this mother and housewife to become so politally active? People feel strongly about many things but remain silent until their wallet is affected. –thus my comments about the business connection.
My intention is not personal destruction–she seems to be a fine person. I occasionally agree with some of her points. She might actually win me over to some of her views if she’d present a reasoned argument on her blog–instead of attempting to play on my emotions or making veiled attacks on other’s race, sexual preference, ethics or religion. I wish her and the family businesses the best (they provide a valid products/services).
I want her to stick around since her postings sometimes cause me to ponder my own views.
…and there’s always the entertainment the tea party movement provides.
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