Dec
17

The Most Vulnerable Republican Senator

By Gordon Smith

Public Policy Polling has news:

Richard Burr’s poll numbers this month are the worst they’ve been since June, and it’s increasingly clear he’s the most vulnerable Republican Senator in the country up for reelection next year.
[...]
Our newest survey finds him with just a one point lead, 42-41, against a generic Dem and also finds his approval rating in negative territory at 35/37.
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To put the current state of the race into perspective, Elizabeth Dole led Kay Hagan 51-39 in a poll we conducted at this same point in the election cycle two years ago.

8 Comments

1

Everything depends on what happens with the economy in the next year — and Civitas has a slightly different take.

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2

Note the comment by “Chris” on that page:

Our poll did not show Burr trailing a generic Democrat. It showed a generic Republican trailing a generic Democrat. And only by 1 point (statistically tied).

A slight difference, but I’m sure you would agree still a meaningful difference.

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3

There’s no question that Burr is in potential trouble next year, given how well progressives are motivated and organized. I don’t see any big Republican counterstrike materializing either, and the Tea Party folks are increasingly less relevant.

But that said, it is an off-year election (so we must remove a significant number of ’08 Obama voters and others from the calculus), NC is generally conservative, and the president and the Democratic Party own the economy now. So if the jobs situation doesn’t improve substantially by next fall, Senator Burr will directly benefit.

Of course, that and fifty cents will buy you a newspaper.

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4

“Of course, that and fifty cents will buy you a newspaper.”

Not anymore. As our local Gannett paper gets less news in it, they raised the price to 75 cents…

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5

See…what do I know?

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6

On the right, the Tea Partiers are imploding and being picked apart by mainstream Republicans, and on the left, we’re getting screwed on health care, Afghanistan, torture prosecutions, banking regulation, etc.

Maybe we’ll all stay home?

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7

At the local Buncombe Republican straw poll for US house candidates the self proclaimed “tea party” candidate won, and he called both parties liars and crooks. So much for “mainstream” Republicans and “imploding” tea parties. I will be there on election day.

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8

Jim — how many folks participated in the straw poll? I didn’t make it over.

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