A Doctor in the House?
By
Yesterday, I mentioned in a post that I believed Dr. Dan Eichenbaum would win the Republican congressional primary here in the 11th six months from now. Of course, ridiculously early predictions are just that; obviously a lot can happen, and I could be way off the mark. But let me tell you all where I’m coming from.
I should make clear that I have absolutely no inside information. Republicans (for the most part) cut their ties with me when I privately predicted the wholesale slaughter of the GOP in Buncombe County two months before the ’08 election — and the poop really dried up when I publicly endorsed Gordon for a Council seat shortly after Holly’s win to the Board of Commissioners last year. (Once Gordon did decide to run, I knew he’d win because he had WNC’s most skilled local political operatives behind him — David Roat, Drew Reisinger, Paul Choi, and Lindsey Simerly — which is why I also believe that Patsy Keever will win the Democratic primary for the 115th. It bears repeating that Gordon ran the best local campaign in my entire 20 years of experience).
Early last June, I also predicted a council victory — on Twitter — for Kelly Miller and Esther Manheimer, something I’m still confident would have happened had Kelly remained in the race (look for him back on Council in ’11 after a possible retirement or two). I also managed to call this year’s Council winners in their correct order on the morning of Election Day, although I did think it would be a tighter margin between Gordon and Cecil.
I say none of this by way of hubris, but to convey the fact that sometimes my predictions are based on an understanding of numbers and the situation on the ground, and sometimes (like now) they’re based purely on an ineffable gut feeling. So much of this kind of crap is about timing, instinct, and the sense of what fits where. It’s like political feng shui.
Given the dynamics of the GOP in the 11th, Eichenbaum is a good fit to win the Republican primary. Former Mayor Greg Newman (who is a friend) is an attractive and charming candidate, but I’m afraid his appeal might not translate beyond the streets of Hendersonville. He’s given to working with others, building consensus, and reaching across the aisle…traits which don’t rank highly among WNC Republicans. Besides, he has no money — and Henderson County Republicans (his obvious fundraising base) are notoriously cheap. I’ve also heard from a number of folks down south that they didn’t think Greg could win re-election this year, had he chosen to run.
I don’t know Dan Eichenbaum, but I do know that he excites enough Republicans in Buncombe County, which is what it takes to win a primary in the 11th. (Obviously the number of Republicans in Henderson County can be decisive as well, which is why I made a full-frontal assault there during Carl’s primary run last year to debilitate Spence Campbell). Eichenbaum’s plugged in to the Tea Party and 9-12 movements, the only significant source of dynamism in the GOP. He’s got an early start, he has money, and he’s a doctor. Republicans (especially of the Randian stripe) love them anyone with a “Dr.” in front of their names — even when the degree isn’t real, it seems.
Ed Krause is a sweet man, but he doesn’t make for a good candidate. WCU professor and GOP insider Dan Ostergaard is plugged-in politically (think NRCC) and certainly would be viable in a primary, but my sense is that his non-native status works against him — Western North Carolina is notoriously suspicious of outsiders. And I honestly don’t know anything about Scott Stump and Kenny West.
The BCGOP is holding a candidates’ forum at A-B Tech on Wednesday, December 9 at 6:00pm (Ferguson Auditorium) and all the players have been invited. It’ll be a good opportunity for us political geeks to size them all up.
All of this said, I don’t think any of the current field can win against Congressman Shuler. No one really gives a damn about all this TVA nonsense (except perhaps for John Boyle and Henderson County GOP Chairman Robert Danos). And besides, by next fall it’ll all be really old news.
And speaking of good fits…frankly, Mr. Shuler is a good fit for the 11th District. For a number of reasons, progressives would be ill-advised to challenge him in a primary.
There is only one person in Western North Carolina who could win a general election against Heath Shuler…and that’s Nathan Ramsey.
But for right now anyway, Nathan’s busy out in Fairview milking cows.
MM
20 Comments
November 24th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Ostergaard of Department of Homeland Security fame? He’s done such a bang up job at the Institute for the Economy and the Future….
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 24th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
The same. A correction, however: Dan Ostergaard is a native of Western North Carolina. My apologies.
From his bio:
MM
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 24th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
What excites people in Buncombe County (Republican or otherwise) might be poison outside the county. Remember Mumpower? (Of course, since Republicans failed to support Mumpower at the polls this last time my assertion doesn’t look as strong as it otherwise might be).
Dr Dan is the certainly the most organized of those currently running, but if Erwin decided to run, I think all bets would be off. I have more confidence in his fund raising skills than Dr Dan, who (more or less) is a blank slate for me at this time. If none of the Republicans can raise at least a million dollars in the primary, I have little confidence that they can beat Shuler.
I’ll be webcasting a candidate forum next Monday, and will take a first measure of them then.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 24th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
I’d vote for Ramsey over Shuler. Shuler is a douche.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 8:32 am
Michael!
It’s great to see your little byline on the Scrutiny Hooligans front page. Thanks for being willing to contribute to our political experiment. I look forward to seeing the conversation here grow and deepen because you’re present.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Bobby,
Your point is well taken (and I agree), but I wasn’t specifically referring to Carl — or the dynamics involved the ’09 municipal race.
The Buncombe thing is purely about numbers; the fact that Eichenbaum already has positive name recognition here among the most conservative voters in an otherwise low-turnout, off-year primary is telling. Eichenbaum will win Buncombe, most of the other counties, and will carve a significant enough number out of Henderson to clinch it. The folks who will decide the outcome on May 4 are disciples of Beck and Limbaugh, and Eichenbaum will provide them with the familiar rhetorical red meat they crave.
I encouraged George Erwin back in the spring of ’08 to think about a congressional run, although I haven’t spoken with him since last Christmas. He would make a great candidate — I had the pleasure of seeing him campaign throughout the 11th for Fred Smith. I have a great fondness for him, and he’s a natural. But for now anyway, he’s out.
As for dollars, I can’t imagine that any Republican can raise a million bucks during the primary, and certainly it doesn’t take that kind of scratch to win. Spence Campbell spent a quarter of a million dollars in the primary (outspending us by nearly 5:1 if I remember correctly) and had a half a dozen paid staffers. Despite Carl’s best attempts to alienate everyone across the district, he still won the ’08 primary because he worked harder. I sense that quality in Eichenbaum.
Word on the street is that Ostergaard has taken himself out of the running. Know anything?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 9:04 am
Gordon,
I know, right? Thanks to you and all the Hooligans for the opportunity to contribute in this way. I was sincerely honored when you asked me, and I hope my contributions can add something to the dialogue. It also says a lot about you that you’d be willing to include an outsider such as me. Bodes well for our fair city, methinks.
Besides, two years of working for Republicans has been about as productive as a one-armed eunuch at a sperm bank.
MM
Have a great Thanksgiving and give Rachel a hug for me
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 9:24 am
Will C Street have any affect?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 9:25 am
welcome, michael!
let us find common ground and move foward, together.
“We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic cords of memory will swell when again touched as surely they will be by the better angels of our nature.” ~Abraham Lincoln
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Mojo,
My sense is that Mr. Shuler’s “C Street” associations — to the extent that they are even on the radar — certainly don’t hurt him among most voters in the 11th. Among Republicans, they undoubtedly help.
Mr. Shuler was re-elected in 2008 because so many Republicans voted for him; the district otherwise supported John McCain over President Obama, and skews heavily conservative and Christian — and fundamentalist Christian at that. I’d let it go. Attacking Mr. Shuler with the “C Street” boogeyman will be seen as a godless, socialistic attack on religion, which will only serve to boost his numbers in a Democratic primary. Without Mr. Obama’s substantial college-aged and African-American voting blocs to count on in a low-turnout off-year election, the number of progressive votes shrinks considerably in the 11th.
And the GOP would love for progressives to successfully (or even unsuccessfully) primary Mr. Shuler…an important factor to keep in mind.
MM
P.S. Thanks for the welcome and vote of confidence, Uptown. I love the Lincoln quote…of course, by modern Republican standards, Mr. Lincoln was nothing more than a big-government despot who trashed private property rights and the Constitution. But what are you gonna do, right?
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Michael:
I’m hearing WCU won’t let him run because of contractual reasons. I’ll find out more Monday. (I’ll bet a Democrat wouldn’t have been told there was a problem).
As far as the money goes…that’s part of the Poverty Mentality that afflicts this district’s Republicans, possibly because Taylor paid his own way for so long.
You had the misfortune of getting involved in Buncombe County. Had you been in another county, especially West of the Balsams, your experience would have been much better.
I’m hoping that the district gets split up after the 2010 Census. It’s geographically too big. At any rate, I’d like to see most of Buncombe County in another district, perhaps in redrawn McHenry or Foxx District. It’s a little dream I have.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 11:43 am
You say that Dan Ostergaard’s non-native status works against him (a statement you correct) yet Dan Eichenbaum’s web site has the following:
“Prior to moving to North Carolina, he practiced for several years in New York and Florida.”
Certainly moving to WNC from New York or, especially, Florida would work against a candidate given you contention that “Western North Carolina is notoriously suspicious of outsiders.”
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Bobby,
Good observation on the “poverty mentality.” You’re absolutely right.
I’m sure Congressman Taylor’s ability to self-fund for so long has something to do with it, but I really think it’s just because WNC Republicans are so fucking cheap. They won’t cough up what it takes to run a modern campaign — undoubtedly because so many are still stuck back in 1958.
It’s also why Republican candidates usually have to rely on a few shady big-dollar donors, reinforcing the not-inaccurate idea that Republican votes are bought and paid for by greedy corporate interests.
Of course, actually having viable candidates worth sending a check to might be a good idea from time to time.
RHS,
I believe Mr. Ostergaard originally hails from Sylva…but you’re right: too much time away from the mountains (not to mention at the same effete alma mater as Barack Obama) clearly makes one suspicious, if not entirely a carpetbagger. But it hardly matters, sounds like he won’t run this time.
MM
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
RHS,
It most likely will work against him in the general. In the PRIMARY, however, Buncombe and Henderson tend to be the key on the R side of things. (Not to mention a few past general elections as well..) Granted, the folks in Haywood and Jackson have their own effect but not to the same extent I think.
And, -not like I brought this up weeks ago or anything- Newman isn’t exactly as wildly popular in Henderson as a few people might think.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Mike,
It was Dan Eichenbaum who I was asking about since on his web site says he moved to NC after time in New York and Florida.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Bobby,
You’d rather live in Virgina Foxx’s or Patrick McHenry’s district that Heat Shuler’s? Good heavens — if you think you have probmes with Shuler just wait until your are represented by either of them.
The 11th may be big geographically but districts, of curse, are draw by population. Since, overall, the 11th has not grown as much as NC has as a whole I doubt the district lines will be changed very much — maybe it will lose that sliver of Rutherford County but not much else and theoretically it could even gain territory. Being in the corner of the state doesn’t help much either and Democrats in Raleigh will want to see to it that Shuler has the best district they can give him and that will have to include Democratic leaning Buncombe.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
RHS,
Sorry about that…I was reading too fast. Dan Eichengaard…Dan Osterbaum…it’s all too much. Besides, I’ve been drinking.
You do make a good point. But I’d think that 23 years would be long enough to qualify you for at least honorary residency around these parts…but — as a Yankee myself — what do I know? It’s taken me five years just to realize that the phrase bless your heart is just the Carolina way of saying you’re a clueless fucking idiot.
Besides, for the whackjobs that have taken over the GOP, unflinching adherence to “principle” (whatever that means…I used to spin this shit for a living and I’m still not sure) trumps everything: dude could be from the moon as long as he manages to channel Glenn Beck.
Cheers,
MM
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
RHS – I’m pretty sure that Bobby was making a joke about Buncombe County being gerrymandered into NC-05 or NC-10.
(You were making a joke, weren’t ya, Bobby?)
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
But C Street isn’t fundalmintalist Christianity, not even close.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
November 25th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
Mojo,
Perhaps I’m unclear. I thought the C Street House was the locus of a super-secretive (although not really) right-wing Christian religious sect bent on establishing a global theocracy in anticipation of the End Times. Sounds like garden-variety fundamentalism to me
Rate this comment:
0 
0