East of the Balsams
ByLast night was a monumental one in Washington, where the health care bill H.R. 3962 passed with one Democratic vote to spare, and help from one Republican. For all the kabuki hand-wringing, the choice to be made was not this health care bill verses a better one waiting to be drafted, but this one verses waiting for another generation. Just over half of the Blue Dog Coalition voted for the bill. Their whip, as you may know, did not. And you thought quarterbacks played offense.
Congressman Heath Shuler often explains to Asheville/Buncombe activists something he thinks they need to understand – there is more to his district than Buncombe County. I wince every time he tells a group in Buncombe that they really don’t understand the 11th district “west of the Balsams.â€
It’s not the best way to win friends and influence voters in a county with about 40 percent of the registered Democrats in the district. Even if he means well. Even if he’s right.
For readers who are new arrivals, the Balsam ridge forms the border between Haywood and Jackson counties. The Blue Ridge Parkway crosses U.S. 23/74 at Balsam Gap (el. 3400 ft.) between Waynesville (where the congressman lives) and Sylva, NC. Shuler was born further west, in Bryson City, NC in Swain County. Cherokee, Graham, Clay, Swain, Jackson and Macon counties lie “west of the Balsams.†I don’t get out there often enough.
It is a two hour drive from Asheville to Murphy, and a world away. People in these counties well off the interstate grow up and die knowing each other, knowing who is a native and who is not. (I have lived within 90 miles of Asheville longer than the congressman has been alive, yet I will forever be someone who “ain’t from around here.â€) Internet connections are spotty out west, I’m told, and not exactly household necessities. The mountain region west of the Balsams is sparsely populated and rugged – not exactly rich with canvassable neighborhoods. Clay and Graham counties each have populations of only about 10,000.
There are Democrats out there. Not hemp-wearing Asheville Democrats, maybe, but Democrats, and more left-of-center than some here believe. At 10 a.m. on a weekday ahead of the 2006 election, it was a delight to find twenty people gathered at a Murphy campaign headquarters to discuss get-out-the-vote efforts. At a meeting this year after one of the votes on the stimulus bill, Democratic county chairs from across the district gave Shuler’s staff a tongue lashing over his no vote.
NC-11 is, on the whole, a moderately conservative one, with about 35 percent Republican registration and some leftover Reagan Democrats on the rolls. In 2008, Obama won only Buncombe county and Jackson county, home of Western Carolina University. He narrowly lost Madison and Swain. Shuler is a good fit for the district, whether Buncombe progressives like it or not. But it might be strategic for the congressman to show them a little more love whether or not they understand how things are done west of the Balsams. His vote on Saturday night did him damage that only a vote for final passage of the health bill might repair. Might.
Democrats in Buncombe are already gearing up for 2010 and choosing which campaigns to get behind with dollars and volunteer hours. Buncombe Democrats won 36 of 36 races in 2008. Democratic turnout was over 2 percent higher here than the statewide average, with voter registration and early voting crushing the GOP candidates. On election night 2008, North Carolina went blue by 14,000 votes. It was Buncombe’s 17,000 vote margin for Obama that put him over the top.
That’s how we do things east of the Balsams.
50 Comments
November 8th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Anyone who does not get that this bill does nothing to provide health care to millions but everything to help the greedy insurance companies make even more profit needs their heads examined.
Kucinich’s Brave Health Vote Vs. Obama’s Failed Promise
Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lee-stranahan/kucinichs-brave-health-vo_b_349857.html&cp
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November 8th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Kai,
Nothing? Nothing at all? You’re wrong about that. The question is whether the benefits are worth the cost.
Tom,
I think a lot of us in Buncombe no longer care how well Shuler fits the district anymore. He’s proven again and again that he’s not that interested in representing the district’s Democrats, and he is not particularly interested in knowing them better, either. I’m not clear why he deserves the party’s line on the ballot after his performance this year, and as I think you’re implying, it’s almost too late for him to earn it, even if it becomes his by default.
It’s not the votes (which he almost certainly gets a “pass” on from Pelosi and Emmanuel) – its the leadership. It’s where he puts his energy. It’s things like writing his letter to Henry Waxman about going easy on drug companies, and then mouthing platitudes about fiscal conservatism when government money might go to ordinary people.
Just like you, I look at the numbers, and especially 2006, when Buncombe provided his margin of victory. And I’m pretty much at the point when I’ve decided that Shuler no longer regards us as a necessary part of the coalition that puts him into office. Maybe he’s right, but if he’s wrong, I’d love to figure out how to a) establish that we’re still necessary, and b) send the message that we might very well pull our support.
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November 9th, 2009 at 6:43 am
One thing Tom fails to mention is that it can take 3 hours or more from certain sections of WNC to get to Asheville due to the road system. The community I grew up in in Macon County is 2 1/2 hrs away.
Also, Tom must drive awfully fast. I now live in eastern Macon County, and it takes me almost 2 hours to get to Asheville observing the speed limit.
I really hope you guys send a progressive to challenge Shuler, who is already a million dollars ahead, and can reliably get 2 or 3 millions more if you push him. He’ll crush who ever you put up against him. He knows it, and that’s why he can speak one way to you, and another way out in the district, and on TV.
I expect that if there were a serious effort to organize Republicans West of the Balsams…especially on the precinct level, Shuler would not be conservative enough for the district. Shoot, if the BCGOP could get a halfway decent effort underway, they could cut into that voter advantage you enjoy in Buncombe so the rest of the district could carry what ever Republican ran over the top. You should never forget that, and cheer every time you read of Buncombe Republicans fighting each other, or screaming at Republicans at the district level and the rest of us in the region. They are your best operatives, and your best hope.
.
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November 9th, 2009 at 7:32 am
Yes Tom,
Actually it’s worse then nothing. If this bill stands as it is Millions will be forced to buy insurance from the very companies whose bottom line is profit not health care coverage. How do you think they will protect their profit? Raise the premiums. And how long do you think it will take for them to find loopholes to deny true coverage? Deductible at $ 5,000? And the “public option” in the bill is even worse.
The only true viable solution for Americans to stop paying twice what other developed Nations pay is a Single Payer System, not for profit.
This whole Health Care proposal needs to be thrown out and started over with Single Payer on the table. No more baby steps, we as a nation can not afford that anymore.
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November 9th, 2009 at 9:12 am
Regarding what Bobby observed:
Bobby’s correct, and the numbers bear him out. Having seen it all up close for the last two years, it’s been the electoral equivalent of a carload of sad-faced, paraplegic clowns climbing over one another trying to execute a Chinese fire drill at a busy four-way intersection.
MM
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November 9th, 2009 at 11:00 am
I’m not saying a progressive primary challenger could beat Shuler. My question is, essentially, what threshold would such a challenger have to meet – how successful would such a campaign have to be – in order to give progressives more leverage and significantly impact Shuler’s Blue Dogging?
(I can think of a few benchmarks for such a campaign off the top of my head – winning Buncombe, or winning 17,000 votes across the district, or winning a sizable majority of the precincts across the district that went for Obama.)
And once we’ve established how successful such a campaign would have to be, do local progressives have the resources to mount such a campaign? Is there a better use for their time and energy?
Also, could such a campaign be used for party- or movement- building?
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November 9th, 2009 at 11:26 am
I live in Sylva and Shuler doesn’t represent me at all. I called his office in D.C. this morning and spoke with a secretary, reminding her how hypocritical it was for him to receive free health care and to vote down health care for people like me. She told me that Shuler’s health care wasn’t free. I agreed with her, and then pointed out that I helped pay for it. She then mentioned Shuler’s concerns about the cost of the bill, and I asked her how much money people being well was worth to the congressman. She had no response.
She grew more and more exasperated throughout the conversation until she finally let out her ultimate retort:
“Sir, the bill passed,” she said.
“No thanks to Fran Suckington,” I replied.
She then thanked me for calling and told me she’d let Congressman Shuler know how I felt.
I guess Shuler’s “Mountain Values” don’t include trying to be his brother’s keeper.
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November 9th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Fran Suckington. classic, sir.
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November 9th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
If I had made a soccer reference, this site would crash due to all of the huzzahs I’d have gotten.
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November 9th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
There are many people living west of the Balsams who are sickened by Rep. Shuler’s votes – in Cullowhee, Cashiers, Highlands, Murphy, Andrews, and all of the other communities in WNC. He does not represent me on most issues of the day. I think the health care vote was the final nail, in terms of giving him any leeway. There is no substance to his statements and it appears he does not support our President, much less many who live in the mountains of NC.
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November 9th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
The Health Care “Reform” that passed the House is deplorable: Mandates– to be enforced by the IRS– to make it ILLEGAL for you to not buy insurance, punishable by fines or imprisonment. The Neanderthal Stupak Amendment. And no real public option- just exchanges where the government will “compete” with for-profit insurers.
I want you guys to understand that I was a lifelong (30 years) Democrat until recently, when I changed my registration to unaffiliated. I have been disheartened to see progressives/liberals who rightfully screamed their indignation all through the Bush years suddenly shut up because their team is in power.
I saw all this in a nutshell this summer at the health care rally that was held at Pritchard Park. Most folks there were holding Obama signs AND signs advocating for UNIVERSAL health care, which Obama had already said was off the table. Paul Choi, who evidently had already gotten the memo, instead talked about a “strong public option”, which had already been stepped down from “robust” public option, and now we’re supposed to be uncorking the champagne because a pitiful sliver of a government-run plan made it into the House bill. One of Choi’s phone-bankers called me one night about a month or so ago and asked me to contact Heath Shuler and tell him to vote to support Obama’s health insurance reform. I asked the caller what exactly Obama’s plan was, and she could not answer me. She just kept giving me variations on “We have to support President Obama”.
We need to fight for and stand for principles, not for politicians we think are cool. This class of Washington “progressives” looks like the biggest bait-and-switch in history.
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November 9th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
The only way to affect Shuler is to hit him from the left in the general. A primary challenge would most likely make his handlers yawn. If the liberals put up an independent it would most likely cost him a few points against the R. This would get his attention.
The logistics of signature gathering aside (easier said than done I might add…), this is risky. Too few votes would have no effect while too many would get the R elected. This would, however, force him to cover his left flank. Which means coming east to deal with the pesky progressives.
Otherwise, Mr. Coggins analysis of the situation stands correct.
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November 9th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
@Jason: not as many huzzahs as a disc golf reference would have gotten.
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November 9th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Thanks, Bobby Coggins. My memory is probably faulty because the last time I went to Murphy I wasn’t doing the driving. I drove to Hayesville in June, but because the drive was so pretty, I don’t think I noticed how long it took.
I am not suggesting a primary challenge, just predicting that recent votes will cost the congressman ground troops.
But on a larger scale — as I think Digby has observed — that it seems to be a staple of conventional wisdom that it’s the left that must always compromise to placate the right. As in, I have to vote this way because ya’ll don’t understand the district west of the Balsams. As in the Stupak amendment. As in, the public option is not that important, so the left should be willing to give it up to get a bill passed. But if it’s that unimportant, why are the “powers” so bent on eliminating it? If it’s that unimportant, why not include it to placate the left?
No more. The best answer to that is ActBlue.
FYI: Speaking of drive time, I just heard that the congressman has to fly into Greenville or Charlotte (no direct flights to Asheville). That means he has a 2-1/2 to 3-1/2 hr commute to get home after he gets off the plane. If so, he has my sympathy and appreciation. As a road warrior myself (my weekly commutes vary from 1-1/2 to 5 hrs), I know how brutal that can be. And I don’t have small children. That little detail is something I’m guessing wasn’t part of the package that Rahm sold him.
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November 10th, 2009 at 7:06 am
“We need to fight for and stand for principles, not for politicians we think are cool.”
Well said!
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November 10th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Why isn’t anyone talking about his C Street connection? As well as Stupak’s and Pitt’s?
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November 10th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
Question for everyone: What does a realistic pathway and timetable look like towards single payer here in the US?
I believe in everyday activism – that we can all do a little something every day that will help change our country, and move us towards the principles most of us on this thread seem to share (including myself and the cool politician in the WH).
There was a generation of liberals that let things slip. Newt Gingrich’s contract with America and President Bush’s successes realized nearly two decades of poor decisions and inequalities.
Recently I asked one liberal whom I had called during a health care phonebank and after much discussion had labeled me naive: Did you vote in 2000 and 2004? Of course she did! she said. Well, do you realize that dozens of like-principled people around you didn’t vote (including myself)? And what did you do to get out their votes?
The liberals were there. And their principles. But something wasn’t working.
I used to tell people in college it was my right NOT to vote. I was THE typical apathetic reactionary-for-reactionary’s sake youth that didn’t care or really know what was going on.
But this past presidential election changed that for me. I realized that it was not just our job to become active citizens, but to help others realize the same.
The brilliance of the Obama campaign can be compared to this simple proverb: Give a man a fish and he’ll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he’ll eat for a lifetime. The Obama campaign taught and INSPIRED. That was the key. (especially for myself.) It drove people to the polls in record numbers. I’ll be an activist for the rest of my life. My goal is to make activism easy for others and motivate them to do their part.
And that’s what I’m doing now with Organizing for America (barackobama.com) – empowering people and working towards the change we elected.
But I also know change will have to take steps.
There are the political ties to moneyed interests that we must break. There are the incorrect perceptions that corporate media perpetuates. There are the political realities we must accept and overcome. There are the Rep Weiners, Kucinichs, and Graysons (and Smiths, Bothwells and Manheimers
we must elect.
But what does that look like? And how do we do it?
I can tell you what we’ve done. We’ve organized registration drives that resulted in thousands of new voters in WNC. We’ve organized personal coffee meetings and potlucks to listen; organized rallies to motivate; organized informational meetings to educate; and organized phonebanks and canvasses to activate. And now we’re repeating and repeating again.
Two quotes:
Confucius: It does not matter how slowly you go so long as you do not stop.
Sun Tzu: Opportunities multiply as they are seized.
I hope that we don’t end up with this situation: We’ll have health care for all. One side will have waited, arms crossed, crediting their principles for getting us there. And the other side will have worked diligently, winning one step at a time, keeping their eyes on the prize, but compromising when needed, pushing the momentum when needed… and they’ll look over at the crossed arms and reach out and say: Yes we did.
ps. The Watcher, I’d be happy to talk about Obama’s plan: principles vs product; Obama’s plan vs legislation charged to Congress.
paul.choi@obamaalumni.com
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November 11th, 2009 at 3:06 am
The Watcher -
Mandates are pretty much a necessary part of health care reform if you’re allowing any sort of free market in health insurance. Otherwise, once you start forcing companies to cover sicker people, healthier people will stop buying insurance as the price rises – particularly younger people. Yeah, the mandates are going to be enforced by the IRS (through a tax surcharge on those who don’t buy insurance, which means a relative increase of about $800 for an uninsured individual making $40,000 a year) but then the IRS would have also effectively “enforced” a single-payer system.
a) “universal” health care, at least in the US health care reform debate, has always meant simply universal access to providers – which can be achieved in a number of ways. Single-payer is more efficient and cheaper, but even though Obama said that was off the table, he has promoted other ways of achieving it.
b) a “strong public option” is another way of achieving universal health care. “Strong” means the same thing as “robust” in this context. The House bill does not include a “strong” public option: that’s a problem, certainly, but Paul and the rest of the local OFA folks diverged from the national organization – and the Obama administration – in insisting on a public option and making it a consistent focus of their effort.
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November 11th, 2009 at 8:51 am
Last night I got a call asking me to thank Shuler for voting against harmful “Pelosi care.” I have to confess, I gave the caller quite an earful. Has anybody else gotten similar calls? I was so taken aback that I didn’t think to ask the caller who she was affiliated with.
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November 11th, 2009 at 10:42 am
I have learned to pay close attention to any C Street affiliation that any politician might have as it assures me that they should never get my vote. The more I read about this group, the more I worry about America’s path during my lifetime. Their meathooks are in the political beast so deep as to be a permanent cancer in the American body politic.
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November 11th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Heath Shuler: Drunk on Big Pharma and the Insurance industry’s cash. Where I come from, they call it corruption.
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November 11th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
I guess my feeling about C Street is that if folks aren’t already fighting their agenda on principle, the fact that it’s inspired by religion probably won’t make much of a difference.
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November 11th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
@ Watcher: The play on words is cute, but inaccurate. There is no fine unless you cheat on your taxes. There is no imprisonment unless you represent one of the most egregious cases of said tax cheats. Read the bill. Specifically sec. 501. They’ll be a quiz tomorrow.
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November 11th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Doug Gibson, C Street isn’t like any religion we know. This isn’t a fundamentalist or evangelical group. This isn’t any main line group, it is all about power. Check out Doug Coe, the founder.
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November 11th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
I live in Macon County and Shuler doesn’t represent me. I will NEVER vote for him again. If you look at his voting record, with the exception of the environment, he’s a Republican.
A friend of mine sent me a YouTube clip of him saying that he didn’t really take into consideration the phone calls his office received. Really? No matter how they were telling him to vote, you would think the voice of his constituents would matter.
Is the health care bill perfect? Of course not. Personally I would like to see them do what the Senator from Oregon, can’t remember his name, wanted and allow people who already have insurance to buy a policy in the exchange. Our premiums will go up an extra $40.00 a WEEK and my deductible goes up by $1,000 starting in January.Voting no is not an option. How many more years should we wait for perfection?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riwzmqgMiCE
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November 11th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Andrew: Please define “cheat on your taxes”. There will be a quiz tomorrow. Perhaps you can quote the pertinent part of the bill to the rest of us rubes so we can all do well on the quiz. Or would you rather rest on your smugness? (Was that too “cute”?)
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November 11th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Good article in Harpers in 2003 about “the Family”:
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2003/03/0079525
…and an August ’09 Democracy Now! interview with the author, Jeff Sharlet, who lived in the house for a while:
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/8/12/sharlet
“America’s Secret Theocrats” he calls them…
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November 11th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
@ The Watcher: Not your papa. Read the bill yourself, in which I provided the .gov links for you in my earlier post. As far as being smug goes, I’m not. I’m simply calling you out on your fringe bullshit talking points. Sorry if you don’t approve.
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November 11th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
@ The Watcher: After you read the bill, you can read this.
http://balkin.blogspot.com/2009/11/will-i-go-to-jail-if-i-dont-buy-health.html
You are right about one thing — we DO need to stand up and fight for our principles.
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November 11th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
Andrew,
Thanks for the link. Another thing to remember: the House bill allows people to go on Medicaid based on their income, not their assets. You go on Medicaid, you’re exempt from the tax. You take advantage of the high-risk pool, you’re exempt. You qualify for Medicare, you’re exempt. You buy into your employer’s plan, you’re exempt. You get covered by your spouse’s plan, you’re exempt. You’re up to age 26 and covered by your parents’ plan, you’re exempt. You use your subsidy to buy insurance on the exchanges, you’re exempt.
There are a few choke points where the subsidies are probably not enough to cover an individual or family’s health care expenses (insurance, co-pays, and deductibles) without causing hardships. It’s questionable whether this Rube Goldberg health care reform will bend the cost curve or control the spiraling cost of premiums. But a lot of the current problems with the health care system will be addressed with this bill.
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November 11th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
I am not against health care reform. I AM against passing a 2,000 page bill that no one understands and which just sets up a lot more things about health care needing reforming.
So, in this instance, Shuler made the right decision.
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November 12th, 2009 at 8:19 am
I think Nancy Pelosi has read the bill. Check out the link to the video where she says that sending people to jail who don’t buy health insurance is fair. Funny, she didn’t mention anything about cheating on your taxes…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2009/11/11/pelosi_on_jail_time_for_no_health_care_the_legislation_is_very_fair_in_this_respect.html
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November 12th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Has anyone ever heard why Shuler named his kids ‘Navy’ and ‘Island’? Did he & his wife draw a blank & decide to ask Gwynneth Paltrow for name suggestions, or what?
Also, it’s turning into Lord of the Flies over at the competing Tea Party organizations. Who could’ve seen that coming?
http://taxdayteaparty.com/2009/11/our-statement-about-tea-party-patriots/comment-page-1/#comment-31614
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November 12th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Any progressive upset by Shuler’s vote on the health care reform bill needs to stay home the next time Dennis Kucinich shows up in town with Ani Difranco expecting local progressives to fawn over him.
I say this as someone who is quite unhappy with Shuler’s vote, but also as someone who understands that if Charles Taylor were still in office we’d not only have a Congressman who voted against the health care reform bill, but one who opposed cap and trade. Sometimes you take what you can get and this is doubly so in the 11th Congressional district of NC. Remember, this district handily elected Taylor for 16 years.
Someone said it earlier in another thread, if you want to have some affect on Shuler’s votes running a progressive against him who will surely lose isn’t the answer. Organizing counter tea bag demonstrations at his office will go much further in these goals. Shuler’s lectures about not understanding the district west of the Balsams may not be delivered in the most gracious or tactful manner, but there is a huge grain of truth to them. In most elections in the district uber Republican Henderson County often wipes out the Democratic edge of Buncombe despite being less than half its size. I sincerely urge Asheville progressives to take a break from their Malaprops/Montford bubble every once and a while and do some exploring around the 11th.
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November 12th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
I’m not sure I see the connection with Dennis Kucinich.
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November 12th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
At the conventions I went to this year (including Netroots), people would ask who my congressman was and when I said Shuler, they’d roll their eyes. But I’d hold up a hand and explain that they had to understand the district we live in.
“Heath is 100% better than what we had,” I explained. Then I’d smile and say, “Okay. He’s still about 50% less than what I’d like, but I can work with that.”
Same as the House health care bill. Now, if Heath would only show the same flexibility when it comes out of conference.
And those 2,000 pages? It’s not exactly Michener, is it? I thought the subplot about the lieutenant and the governor’s daughter could have been left out to make it a lot faster-paced. And some of the pages stuck together.
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November 12th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Just a quick question: Is anyone familiar with Group Health based in Seattle, WA? I’m a big fan. It’s the Co-Op model that for some reason most progressives had a problem with when a few congressman brought it up. Pretty much the reason health insurance is dirt cheap in Washington state due to other companies having to compete with a massive non-profit health provider. I was curious to know why if any of you were against it. Was it that folks didn’t understand who Group Health was or what?
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November 12th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Barry – Dennis Kucinich also voted against the health care reform bill.
Tom — agreed. A 50% ally beats a 100% opponent any day.
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November 12th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
John,
Word on the nets was that it was nicknamed “Group Death” by its policyholders.
And the specific problems with the co-op model were:
a) The CBO couldn’t rule on how effective the co-op model might be, and basically said there was no evidence that they would provide any real competition with private insurers on the exchanges.
b) The co-ops as proposed would have been state-based, meaning that they would be starting out with pools of insured that were only located in particular states, which could severely limit their competitiveness with the other insurers on the exchanges – many of which would be national and would be allowed to sell policies across state lines as part of the tightly-regulated exchanges.
c) Not only were the co-ops going to be small, these small (and probably undercapitalized) non-profits would be starting from scratch against established health care insurers. Group Health, I believe, started up in either the 40′s or 50′s, when health insurance wasn’t nearly as concentrated a market as it is now, and corporations weren’t as cutthroat. It may, in fact, have been the first insurance company in the Seattle area (but don’t quote me on that).
If a co-op started in North Carolina, it would have access to I don’t know how many potential consumers initially, but I doubt it would have been more than a couple of hundred thousand. It would be going up against national companies like Aetna and Wellpoint, and also against Blue Cross/Blue Shield, which already enjoys a monopoly in the individual policy market.
In such a situation, the co-op would have to advertise itself, negotiate with providers, establish administration – and cross its fingers that BCBSNC and the other insurance companies didn’t use their monopsony power (the power they held as enormous purchasers of medical services) to strong-arm providers into staying out of the co-op’s network. I’m no MBA, but it doesn’t sound to me like a fair fight.
The bottom line is that this health care reform effort relies on “fixes” to correct a free market in health insurance. In this scenario the point of a public option is to provide competition with private insurers that would otherwise not exist. A national co-op that enjoyed the full backing of the government might provide that kind of competition, but such a thing was never proposed, and probably seemed like too much of a gamble for anyone who was actually interested in insuring people at affordable rates.
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November 12th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
John, RHS,
I don’t know if a primary is a good idea – though I don’t think the district’s Democrats should reject it out of hand. But for me it’s not that Shuler’s batting .500 on Democratic legislation. Rather, it’s about how he’s using his time when he isn’t voting.
If the Blue Dogs had just decided to sit this one out, and each of them tossed a coin on which way they’d vote on health care reform, that’d be one thing. Instead, members of their caucus led the effort to water down the public option to the greatest extent possible, which will have the result of costing the government (that is, you and I) more money to get fewer people insured.
If you don’t think Mike Ross and the other Blue Dogs on the Energy and Commerce committee enjoyed Heath Shuler’s full support, then I’m glad to hear it, and I would be more than happy to see the evidence that proved me wrong. I like Shuler, he’s a friendly, cheerful guy, and I don’t enjoy disagreeing with anyone. Until I hear something different, however, I’m going to say that we’ve got someone representing this district who votes “our way” 50% of the time, and works against us 90% of the time. I doubt there’s any alternative, but it depresses me that we can’t do any better.
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November 12th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
Both BCBSNC and Mission are non-profits entities, but BCBSNC still had a massive rate hike for the 2010 term.
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November 13th, 2009 at 10:54 am
“Both BCBSNC and Mission are non-profits entities, but BCBSNC still had a massive rate hike for the 2010 term.”
Good point – I was searching around the web for info on BCBSNC, and one website offered a link to “A mess o’ numbers about healthcare in North Carolina.” I clicked on it, and wound up back on ScooHoo:
http://scrutinyhooligans.us/2009/06/22/some-data-on-health-care-and-health-care-reform-in-north-carolina/
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November 13th, 2009 at 11:48 am
I love this – a clearer case of hypocrisy would be hard to find. The RNC, while working hard to deny abortion rights to millions of American women, has been quietly paying for it for their own employees for twenty years:
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dc/2009/11/embarrassed-rnc-to-drop-aborti.html
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November 13th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
I’m not suggesting a primary challenge. I mean gathering the signatures to put someone’s name on the ballot as an independent in the general in a three way race. I haven’t researched the rules or anything but I’m guessing about 20,000 to 25,000 signatures would do it. If Shuler is hitting around 60% which I expect he would do, it’s not all that hard to imagine a Jefferson Democrat type cutting that in half. Since one would only need 34% to win, then you have a reasonable challenge on your hands.
But like I said before, it’s risky. If the independent didn’t hit 34%, then anything more than 10% of the vote means the Republican wins for certain. Which wouldn’t be half bad if Dan Eichenbaum wins the Republican primary since at least we know he’s anti-war and anti-Fed. But I’m not sure the Ron Paul types are going to pull that off against Greg Newman…
As far as health care is concerned, I think we’re all being deceived by the argument itself. We’re all talking about insurance providers when we should be talking about health care providers. Remove insurance from the discussion and start talking health care. We should be talking about the bast way to provide CARE not insurance. The only way to do this is to talk socialism vs. free market in the context of health care once and for all. You know the libertarians are going to bring up the fact that LASIK surgery and breast enhancement have gotten cheaper over the years rather than more expensive. And they’re right. Why? Insurance doesn’t cover it. It gets left to the market. Likewise, the socialists (I hate that term) will bring up the success of European-style health care. They’re right too. Granted its an oversimplified explanation, but I think this is going to boil down to one or the other.
This is way I’m so interested in a local Co-Op. While not a perfect example, ABCCM seems to stay afloat despite funding problems. And Group Health started as a provider not an insurance company. They didn’t branch out until later when they got big. I don’t see any reason we can do this as a community. Anyway, I’m writing a novel here…
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November 14th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
John,
To get on the ballot as an unaffiliated candidate, you’d need at least 18,900 signatures by June 25 – and since you’d want to collect more than that in order to cover duplicates and errors, I think 20-25k is a good target.
You’d also have to raise
$1652$1740 to cover the filing fee, which is set at 1% of a congressman’s salary. I’m guessing that there are plenty of Republicans who would donate that much and more to give Heath Shuler a third-party challenger.A Democratic challenger would simply have to raise (or be prepared to write their own check for) the filing fee by February 26. And have all the FEC paperwork in order by that date as well.
What’s a Jefferson Democrat?
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November 14th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
34% for a third party candidate is a pipe dream at best even with the kind of funding it would take for such a candidate to draw the 1-2% a Libertarian candidate sometimes draws in the 11th.
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November 14th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
NC State Board of Elections shows roughly 460 Libertarians registered in NC-11 as of 11/7. (I say roughly because only a portion of Rutherford Co. is in-district; I can’t find where current data is sorted by district and don’t feel like breaking it out.)
http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_results.asp?EC=11-07-2009
Roughly 2/3 of the population of NC-11 is E. of the Gap.
Roughly 73% of Democrats in NC-11 are E. of the Gap. (Half of those are in Buncombe.) 62% of the Republicans.
11th District registration (roughly) 522,944: 40% Democrat, 33% Republican, 27% UNA.
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November 14th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Doug -
Jeffersonian Democrat is a super old term. They haven’t really existed for about 150 years. Basically anti-federalist, pro-farmer, pro-education sort of philosophy in the context of the 1800′s. There are volumes out there on Jeffersonian thought. Jefferson basically feared that the industry and banking interests would reduce citizens to wage slaves. I would say that the modern equivalent – I can feel a semantic debate coming on – would be a liberal localist. Very similar to a lot of folks “East of the Balsams.”
RHS-
Again, the purpose of a third candidate would be to pull Shuler to the left – not to beat him. Beating him would require a massive liberal revolution and, quite frankly, as much as folks aren’t down with Shuler, I don’t think progressives are ready to burn the barn down quite yet. Remember all the infighting back in 2002 and 2004? It would be that times ten.
Also, I don’t feel like doing the math right now but wouldn’t a third candidate already have a around 5% of the vote with 25,000 signatures? I think that would get Shuler’s attention…
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November 15th, 2009 at 10:07 am
John — point taken, although I was specifically responding to you saying it would only take 34% to win.
The idea of a third party candidate pulling Shuler to the left only raises another question — how far to the left can he be pulled before his seat is in jeopardy because he becomes out of step with his generally conservative district?
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November 15th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
OK. I see what you mean. That’s my fault. I didn’t explain that clearly. Yeah, 34% would be the minimum win number in a three-way. I agree with you. One would need at least 6 or 7 more points to win in an average year. But again, I think trying to win is moot…
That said, I don’t think it’s unreasonable for someone to pick up 5 – 10 points and force Shuler to the left. Anything more than that and the Republican wins…
You could probably do that with just women if you picked up an endorsement from NOW. But while we’re at it, any number of leftist groups could pull it off. The organic food folks straight up can’t stand Tom Vilsack. And I’m sure there are a few environmental groups who feel Cap and Trade fell short of being meaningful. And let’s not forget there’s still a war going on…
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