Predictions
By
In about 134 hours we’re going to know who’s been elected to Asheville City Council. This is your thread to make predictions as to the winners. So far a little over 2,000 of you have voted.
Thanks to everyone who’s participated in my campaign. Whether you’ve volunteered, donated, or simply voted and spread the word – Thank You. For you spectators out there, know that there are still ways for you to get involved:
Saturday, 10/31 – Canvass and Phone Bank, 10:30am, Mountain Java on N. Merrimon. If you’d like to knock on doors or make calls please join us. Click here to let me know you’re coming.
Tuesday, 11/3 – Be a Poll Ambassador! I’m still hunting folks who can be at precincts across the city on Tuesday to be the last smiling face voters see before they cast their ballots. Click here to let me know you can be a part of this crucial effort.
Anytime – Donate! There are still a few things I’m going to have to spend money on, and your contribution will help me get across the financial finish line. Whether it’s ten bucks or a hundred, your dollars can make the difference. Click here to donate via Paypal.
Early voting is open today, tomorrow, and Saturday. Early voting locations are listed here. You can vote today until 6pm, tomorrow from 10am – 6pm, and Saturday from 8am – 1pm.
Click here to find your precinct location if you plan to wait until Tuesday to vote.
Make sure everyone you know gets out to exercise their franchise. Email ‘em, text ‘em, call ‘em, harass ‘em, drag ‘em – whatever it takes. With the turnout expected to be quite low, every vote will count.
Thanks again, Hooligans. Now give me your predictions.
56 Comments
October 29th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Bothwell
Smith
Peck
Bellamy
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October 29th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Bothwell
Smith
Mannheimer
Mumpower
Cape
Jackson
Croft
I’m curious to see if Cape can get more votes than Mumpower.
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October 29th, 2009 at 10:43 am
John Boyle picks Bothwell, Manheimer, Smith.
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October 29th, 2009 at 10:43 am
Bothwell
Smith
Manheimer
Mumpower
Cape
J. Neal Jackson
Croft
Bothwell barely squeaks by Smith due in part to Cantrell flyer helping him with Obama voters in the city.
Manheimer, Mumpower and Cape vote totals are close.
Bellamy wins with 76 percent.
It’s gonna be a long, long night counting up the Cape write-in votes.
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October 29th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Matt Mittan has a City Council race online poll at his website. It’s on the left hand sidebar halfway down the page. Click here to vote!
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October 29th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Peck(3)
Peck(1)
Smith
Bothwell
Manheimer
Cape
Mumpower
Peck(2)
Jackson
Croft
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October 29th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
Actually, I think Boyle picked it right.
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October 29th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
I’m guessing it will go one of two ways –
Either the current standard of Cecil Bothwell, Gordon Smith, & Esther Manheimer
Or if Robin Cape really pulls through with the write-in, I think it will take votes away from Esther, allowing Carl Mumpower to slide in for a third term. Not likely, but definitely an possible election outcome.
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October 29th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
What Bobby said.
Bothwell
Smith
Manheimer
Mumpower
Cape
Jackson
Croft
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October 29th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
The big unknown is how Cape will impact the race. I think that she will do better than I initially thought. Where I had previously thought it was impossible for her to pull out a victory, I now think it is possible, just not very probable and here is why.
In 2005, Waterbury, CT with a population of just over 100,000 elected a write-in candidate for Mayor. The mayor-elect won with a whopping total of 8,000 votes. Michael Jarjura was the incumbent mayor and had lost to a primary challenger after spending $150,000. He then mounted a write-in campaign for the general election spending an additional $100,000. He ran 100 commercials a day for ten days leading up to the election. Two thousand people came to his open houses to see how to cast a write in vote demonstrating size of his support base.
How many people have given money to Robin? What type of turnout has she had for her events? Has her base of support changed since she was elected with large numbers 4 years ago? The answers to these questions will provide some better insight than my speculation.
Other factors to consider. Cape road a progressive wave of high spirited voters in 2005 with Holly Jones, Chris Pelly, myself, and Kieth Thompson on the ballot. Robin’s campaign had volunteers from at least 3 campaigns helping push people to the polls to vote for her. There was also a tight race between Bellamy and Dunn with the opportunity to pick up an additional seat do to a vacancy. This year there is not nearly the buzz about the election to drive turn-out. We have also seen the two incumbents on the primary ballot get trounced, leading me to believe that voters are ready to move on and get new voices in the council chambers. In low voter turnout elections incumbents generally do better. The last factor to consider is that at least 2 of the top 3 candidates are not supporting Cape.
My predictions:
Scenario 1 – Robin gets less than 1,000 votes
Manheimer
Smith
Bothwell
Scenario 2 – Robin gets more than 1,000 votes…Mumpower retains his seat. The other two that join him will be the candidates that increase their base from the primary.
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October 29th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
One more thing…We are all working under the assumption that anyone who writes in Cape is also voting for Bothwell and Smith. Word on the street is that is the case, however if more than 25% of those writing in Cape vote for candidates other than Smith and Botwell, or single shot Cape, than Bothwell or Smith could be in trouble.
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October 29th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Bothwell, Smith, Mumpower
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October 29th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
It all depends on how many people vote who reside outside the politically aware bubble. If the “others” show up, it won’t be until Tuesday. They are generally not early voters. There will be some measure of anti-Bothwell-ness among them and pro-Mumpower-ness. Other than that, who knows what other choices they will make. If they show up in decent numbers, I think Bothwell may go down because he is a boogie-man figure to conservatives (and even just an everyday jerk in the minds of some progressives), just as Mumpower is a boogie-man (and, yes, a jerk) to liberals. If the work-a-day folks take a pass as they did in the primary, then the progressive cliques (I chose that word carefully, by the way) carry the day because of their activism. But even then I don’t think Bothwell will be the top vote getter this time.
I think Robin Cape will do much better than one thousand votes. But I don’t know how much better. I think there is a possibility that she gets in. It depends on who shows up Tuesday.
The only shoo-in I see at this point is Manheimer. She’s obviously very smart and experienced, and she is not an idealogue who chases one group or the other away. She seems to be the very definition of “pragmatic”.
And, hey- don’t game the Take a Stand poll. That would be tacky.
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October 29th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
“…if more than 25% of those writing in Cape vote for candidates other than Smith and Botwell, or single shot Cape, than Bothwell or Smith could be in trouble.”
Duh. ConservaLiberTeaReactionaries have been pushing for Cape since she announced her write-in campaign, for this very reason. Right, Tim(1)?
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October 29th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
Curley
Larry
Moe
Sneezy
Dopey
Grumpy
Peck (oops, sorry, I’ve already listed ‘Grumpy’)
okay, okay … my serious prediction …
Bothwell
Smith
Mumpower
(you guys always underestimate Carl).
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October 29th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
Bothwell
Smith
Manheimer
Bumpower
Cape
Action Jackson
The Beck Worshipper
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October 29th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
Ralph…I have learned to never underestimate Carl.
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October 29th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Gordon has the most room to grow. And tonight UNCA crushed another 800+ calls for him. My prediction is the underdog, Gordon Smith steals first in a very close race between him and Bothwell. Leaving one more very close race between Cape and Manheimer, (and Cape is definitely catching up).
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October 30th, 2009 at 2:19 am
My best guess:
Smith
Bothwell
What the hell … CAPE! (FTW)
—
Manheimer
Mumpower
Jackson
Croft
Bonus predictions ’cause I’m feelin’ lucky:
1) Robin will get >1000 votes
3) Bryan is buying me top-shelf drinks.
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October 31st, 2009 at 9:54 am
Sat. 9:30 I just came from North Asheville library. Some of Cecil’s people who had talked to me about him a few days ago when I voted had put up an old Elaine Lite campaign sign and a few others and scrawled “Write In” on them. They were laughing about them when I came by. I don’t know if it’s illegal to put up old signs to mess with a real write-in which is what it was obvious they were up to, but it is really tacky and stupid and is not going to help anybody. Frankly, they were acting like babies. Robin Cape was there and seemed to be taking it well, but it pissed me off. I wanted our candidates to set a high bar for conduct this time but some of Cecil’s people have acted really dumb. If anybody knows how to get in touch with him, maybe you could tell him to get control of his campaigners there.
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October 31st, 2009 at 6:22 pm
Why don’t we just call you Tim(4) to keep it clear?
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October 31st, 2009 at 7:19 pm
Another flyer from Cecil Cantrell and Chris Peterson hit the streets today, this one lambasting both Cecil Bothwell and Gordon for their “extremist” views that promote “socialism” blah, blah blah.
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October 31st, 2009 at 8:22 pm
Why does Cecil Cantrell and Chris Peterson think Bothwell and Gordon need any help in looking extremist? Seems poor judgment on their part and an unnecessary duplication of effort.
But… Happy Halloween to all! See here for my official Halloween greeting:
http://forums.1vid.com/index.php/topic,1341.0.html
–Ralph
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October 31st, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Is extremist the best ya’ll can come up with? Why not grow a pair and say what ya really mean: pinko-commie-America-hating-peacenik-cut and runners-etc.
I mean it needs a qualifier for it make any sense. Extreme from what? Idiocy? I’d say so. too bad the local GOP couldn’t find anyone serious (other than Neal) to run in the local elections. Why do they want to surrender the city to the Socialists without a fight? Do they not care that these extremist candidates are planning on turning Asheville into a Stalinist nanny (city)state? WAKE UP PEOPLE!
and for Ralph:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDBe7CuG8hA
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October 31st, 2009 at 11:13 pm
You know, “extremist”, like the majority who elected Obama, or the majority who want a public option…
Maybe they should just embrace it, & say yeah, we’re ‘Extreme’, like Extreme Sports or Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
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November 1st, 2009 at 7:06 am
Barry the majority that elected Obama are not extremists … just ill-informed and somewhat sorry by now.
But national politics and Asheville politics exhibit a vast difference. In Asheville, the progressives are trying for a far greater degree of change than even Obama envisions (but appears inept in achieving). In Asheville, issues such, especially, as dictation by the masses of what one can do with their private property is a far cry from our tradition mountain values. … well… one might even call it… extremist.
Right or wrong, the so-called (and misnamed) Progressives are kinda… let me see… hmmm… extreme.
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November 1st, 2009 at 7:07 am
Typo police: ‘traditional’ of course.
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November 1st, 2009 at 8:33 am
Check out Tebbe Davis’ letter to the editor in Friday’s AC-T re Cantrell and Peterson’s tactics:
* * *
Dirty tricks have no place in Asheville elections
Asheville Citizen-Times, October 30, 2009
By Tebbe Davis, Asheville
http://www.citizen-times.com/article/200991029051
It appears elements of the conservative right are up to their usual tricks in this year’s city election. Fliers attacking City Council candidate Cecil Bothwell recently were sent through the mail to local voters by a group working under the name “Common Sense in Government.” I did a little research and found that the organization is headed by Chris Peterson, a video poker machine operator when Bobby Medford was Buncombe County sheriff, and Cecil Cantrell, a supporter of Medford’s.
It’s useful to remember that it was Bothwell’s investigative reporting that helped bring Medford to justice and put him behind bars for 15 years for extortion, money laundering and conspiracy related to illegal video poker machine businesses. Coincidence? Perhaps, but in a small city like this I doubt it.
Furthermore, Cantrell has been deeply involved in the “swiftboating” of progressive candidates in previous city elections. Let’s show these dirty tricksters that such outdated and irresponsible techniques are best dumped in the dustbin of history. Let’s go to the polls and elect Cecil Bothwell and other progressive candidates, leaders who will help move our community forward during these challenging times.
Old and stale political scare tactics are not going to work here.
Tebbé Davis, Asheville
# # #
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November 1st, 2009 at 9:36 am
“…the progressives are trying for a far greater degree of change than even Obama envisions ”
I don’t think you’ve got it quite right, Ralph. Seems to me that Asheville progressives and the American mainstream that voted to elect President Obama are quite harmonious.
On Affordable Housing – Obama announced an “…extension of the first-time homebuyer tax credit and financing for the affordable-housing trust fund.”
For Asheville, I’m proposing more density to private developers to provide a profit margin great enough to make affordable housing a reality for them as well as restoring the affordable housing trust fund.
On Green Energy – Obama’s desired energy bill “…includes strict energy efficiency standards and requirements for wind, solar and other renewable electricity use nationwide.”
For Asheville, I’m proposing getting out in front of these energy efficiency standards in order to give our private industries a boost in the regional economy.
On Multimodal Transportation – Obama’s USDOT “Regional Access and Livability Initiatives
The Administration supports efforts to improve regional access and mobility and enhance the livability of communities. Possible reforms in Stage I reauthorization could include:
* Regional Access: developing guidelines for multimodal regional access plans, establishing local transportation governance standards and best practices, and funding approved multimodal access plans.
* Livability: developing guidelines for community plans and providing funding for approved projects with special emphasis on convenience of transportation options, reductions in travel times, smart growth, preservation of open space, and more integrated responses to land use and transportation needs.
Here in Asheville we’ve already got the guidelines and plans, now we have to dedicate the funding.
So it seems, Ralph, that Asheville progressives are quite in step with the times. We are the American mainstream, as indicated by the voting results for the last 12 months.
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November 1st, 2009 at 11:18 am
Your statements certainly sound reasonable, Gordon… however, consider this:
Only about 25% of voters elected Obama.
In the primary for City Council, about 11% of people in Asheville bothered to vote.
Not your fault so many people are apathetic but neither Obama or Asheville city council candidates can be characterized by any stretch as “mainstream.” It’s just reality.
What ANY candidate is honor bound to do — in our representative republic — is work for everyone NOT just for what they personally think is cool.
That’s all I ask you to do. That’s all anyone should ask you to do. Most importantly, you should ask exactly that of yourself and not ride off piggywiggledly after some oddball Progressively fuzzy utopian dream that most likely won’t work here in the mountains anyway.
You will, as myself and so many have predicted — Gordon — be elected. I congratulate you for your willingness to serve in a public position. However, there will be perhaps a 15-20% turnout. So you must take it upon yourself to represent all the people, not just the few who vote. It won’t be easy.
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November 1st, 2009 at 12:08 pm
You seem to know a lot about the mainstream Ralph, yet you remain rather vague about what exactly “mainstream” is.
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November 1st, 2009 at 12:12 pm
…or are you suggesting that apathy is mainstream, and that council members should, when voting, keep in mind the people who are uninformed and ignorant and vote how they would vote? Sounds like Idiocracy.
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November 1st, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Values? That’s one of those malleable words, Ralph, that’s been abused by some folks over the years (not you, of course), to bludgeon people on the left & imply that we are not decent folks. Even some on the right have acknowledged that the word has been ruined for political discourse. To quote conservative icon William Bennett, “When I hear the word values, I reach for my Sears catalog.”
In the interest of stripping away the unfortunate connotations, perhaps you could explain exactly what “traditional mountain values” are, and then specifically how you believe that progressives like Gordon or Cecil don’t respect them.
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November 1st, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Of course, perhaps I should’ve pointed out that when Bennett said that, he was selling something.
Just a word on mandate – on the national scene, in 2000 and 2004, we were told that Bush had won a mandate for pushing a hard-right agenda, even though his ‘victories’ in those elections were non-existent and razor-thin, respectively.
Call them ill-informed if you like, but a much larger majority elected Obama than did Bush.
And on the local scene, if Gordon & Cecil are elected, I think they’ll be justified in pushing hard on their agenda. Conservatives are in a distinct minority in the Asheville electorate – witness the slate of candidates and the results of the primary. Why should progressives be forced to continue to compromise THEIR values, in some sort of ersatz affirmative action for conservatives?
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November 1st, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Get off mah lawn!
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November 1st, 2009 at 7:51 pm
piggywiggledly
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November 1st, 2009 at 10:20 pm
In other news:
Carl is watching us.
(a must see for any who missed the Lylas performance at the Mountain Xpress Best Of Bash – thanks to Ashevegas for posting this)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smjmiOIJxWE&feature=player_embedded
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November 2nd, 2009 at 2:57 am
Cecil,
You mentioned in this post that you belong to a church and you speak of your “fellow parishioners.” If I may, what church do you belong to?
Thanks,
MM
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November 2nd, 2009 at 4:33 am
As to who has a mandate at the national level, the midterm elections in 2010 will tell us that. The 2008 Congressional elections were a judgement of Bush as the 2000 Congressional elections were a judgement on Clinton.
George W Bush lost whatever mandate he had in 2006 when he lost both Houses of Congress. 2010 will be either a confirmation of the election of Obama, or a first clue that he does not enjoy a mandate, and will set up the playing field for 2012.
I realize that that is a simplistic analysis and paints things with a very broad brush; taken long-term, I think it is a useful way of looking things without a lot of clutter that can provide perspective.
Locally, I think it is about to be very clear that the Progressives do have a mandate (and I really, really hate saying that) in Asheville. Only the most ignorant (or politically blind) person can say that the Progressives haven’t enjoyed growing influence over the last few election cycles in Asheville and Buncombe County.
I think I enjoy a perspective from several dozen miles away that can allow me to say that the Republican Party in Buncombe County has made mistake after mistake for at least the last two years, perhaps much longer. This has been compounded by grievous tactical and strategic errors made by the “conservative” candidates for Asheville City Council, who have taken their lead from Carl Mumpower. They will not be able to survive his errors.
I’ve been clear from the beginning that I think Gordon’s Campaign has been brilliant, and have taken a measure of heat from certain “Republicans” in Buncombe for pointing that out.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.
Tuesday is Judgement Day all the way around.
I would love to be wrong in my analysis…but I think I remain a Cassandra.
Sorry for the rant.
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November 2nd, 2009 at 10:56 am
“As to who has a mandate at the national level, the midterm elections in 2010 will tell us that. The 2008 Congressional elections were a judgement of Bush as the 2000 Congressional elections were a judgement on Clinton.”
Democrats GAINED 5 seats in the Senate and a seat in the House in the 2000 elections, and Clinton’s Vice President won a plurality of the nationwide popular vote and Clinton’s Vice President won a plurality of the nationwide popular vote, so it sounds to me like the voters judgement of Clinton wasn’t nearly as harsh as the 2006 and 2008 judgment of the Bush presidency.
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November 2nd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Michael,
I can’t answer the Cecil church question (and not just because it wasn’t posed to me) but I am about to become a certified Reverend and I plan on starting my own church. If anyone wants to join feel free to contact me.
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November 2nd, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Shad,
This is excellent news!
I have a nun’s habit and a pair of fishnet stockings, along with plenty of cheap merlot. I think I may even have a scapular around here somewhere…oh shit, it’s a speculum. Whatever.
When do we start? And will virgins be involved?
MM
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November 2nd, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Forget the virgins, will you sell indulgences? I have a list of questionable choices I’d like to have a pass on. Will you offer bulk discounts?
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November 2nd, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Will you have a virtual church online?
HuffPo article posted just now – “Click to accept Christ”:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/02/internet-believers-pastor_n_342479.html
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November 2nd, 2009 at 5:17 pm
RHS:
Have a dictionary handy? Judgement can be either good or bad.
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November 2nd, 2009 at 7:26 pm
I will shortly be ordained. I’m not sure what the church will be, but I plan to have an online component, and yes I will sell indulgences, offer pardons and take confession.
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November 2nd, 2009 at 7:36 pm
I think barry’s right about forgetting the virgins. Overrated, mostly — and messy, what with all the screaming and restraining orders and whatnot.
Shad, will you be infallible? That would be cool.
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November 2nd, 2009 at 7:58 pm
love ya, shad, but the tenets of my personal non-faith require me to ignore yours.
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November 2nd, 2009 at 8:05 pm
“Judgement can be either good or bad.”
My point exactly.
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November 2nd, 2009 at 8:37 pm
Michael: I already am. Just ask my cat.
Arratik: My church doesn’t require faith of any kind. Also there will be beer.
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November 3rd, 2009 at 1:05 am
“I had a virgin once. I had to fly to Guatemala for her. She was blind in one eye and had a stuffed alligator that said ‘Welcome to Miami Beach.’”
…from the movie “The Stunt Man”. For some reason, this line wound up on several ‘best movie quotes’ lists I’ve seen…
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November 3rd, 2009 at 6:57 am
Speaking of virgins, here’s a prediction: Robert Edwards will not win the race against Terry Bellamy today.
Here’s another: Esther Manheimer will come in first, and Gordon and Cecil will fight it out for second and third place.
Here’s another: Shad Marsh, David Roat and Paul Van Heden will appear at an upcoming City Council meeting dressed in panchos and sombreros and fake mustaches, where they will perform “The Impossible Dream” from Man Of La Mancha.
Here’s another: Don Yelton will burst a vein in his head.
That’s all for now.
MM
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November 3rd, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Michael,
I’m a member of the Unitarian Universalist Church of Asheville, chair of the Human Rights Team there, secretary of the Social Justice Council. I started and participate in a jail ministry program there too.
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November 4th, 2009 at 6:00 am
Thanks Cecil, and congratulations!
David, Shad and Paul…FYI, the Costume Shoppe on Haywood has some good Mexican drag. And in case y’all need some inspiration…here is the incomparable Jack Jones. I’m guessing you’ll be the entertainment when Terry presents Carl with his plaque in December?
MM
P.S. I think Brother Christopher has a pair of maracas. Or maybe it’s Charlie. That’d be fun.
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November 6th, 2009 at 8:56 am
Nothing witty from Roat, Marsh or Van Heden? You guys down with the swine flu?
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November 15th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Mnnhmr hvng th dcdng vt s prfct s sh s cltrl prgrssv nd cnmc cnsrvtv s hr spprt fr gy rghts wll hlp s rdc r chldcr txs. Sh cn wn gy bnfts wth 3 cltrl prgrssvs nd wn spply sd hsng nd cnstrctn jbs wth 3 cnmc cnsrvtvs. nd Swnnn ncrprtn lst prtctng cnstrctn jbs nd hsng sppls thr t! Hry!
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