Taking a Closer Look at NC Voter Registrations

538.com has a concise look at what the huge rise in new voter registrations might mean at the polls for Barack Obama:

“Since the first of the year, Democrats have added about 250,000 voters to the Republicans’ roughly 50,000, while unaffiliated voters also increased their numbers by about 170,000. What was a 10.6 point party ID gap at the start of the year is now 13.0 points. About half that gain came between the first of the year and the state’s May primary, and the other half came between the primary and last week’s deadline.
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“Meanwhile, about 150,000 black voters — and 35,000 “other” voters — have been added to the rolls since the start of the year. That compares with about 235,000 white voters.

Assuming that Obama captures 35 percent of white voters, 95 percent of black voters, and 60 percent of “other” voters, the change in the racial composition of the electorate since the first of the year is worth a net of about 1.5 points to Obama in his race against McCain.”