The Morning After
By
What a wild night.
First things first. Y’all should know I’m currently tucking into a supersize plate of crow for predicting a Campbell victory over Army of Mumpower. I have a side plate for predicting a Stanley defeat.
Hot Carl pulled 48.08% to Campbell’s 42.30%. Armor couldn’t break 10. Carl’s fantastic performance in Buncombe County appears to have sealed his victory – 72.71% of the Republican voters here pulled the lever for teh mump. Of the 19,585 votes Mumpower received, 7,841 of them came from Buncombe. In all, Mumpower won nine counties to Campbell’s six.
Buncombe County voter turnout was 38.06% – 62,730 people cast a ballot.
The County Commission race is now a muddled miasma. Holly Jones is the clear front-runner, having pulled 30,535 votes or 21.45% in the primary balloting. No one else came close to that.
K. Ray Bailey: 21,268 / 14.94%;
Carol Weir Peterson: 19,655 / 13.81%;
Bill Stanley: 17,499 / 12.29%.
Cecil Bothwell missed the cut by about a thousand votes.
On the Republican side, Don Yelton surprised the conventional wisdom by swinging into third. And the vote totals draw a stark comparison regarding partisan interest in this primary. Mike Fryar came in a surprising dead last.
Joe “Dr. No” Dunn: 7,656 / 24.07%
John “CIBO” Carroll: 6,294 / 19.79%
Stompin’ Don Yelton: 5,521 / 17.36%
Ron “Expat” McKee: 5,181 / 16.29%
So the November race is muddled. Holly Jones and K. Ray Bailey will be the prohibitive favorites. If Republicans come out to support Democratic incumbent (and lone Democratic No Zoning vote) Bill Stanley, then he could win a sixth term. Dunn and Carroll will likely pull a lot of support, and both have a chance. That leaves Carol Peterson in an unlikely dogfight with Don Yelton and Ron McKee. If I had to guess today, I’d say we’re going to be looking at a 3-2 County Commission with David Gantt defeating Nathan Ramsey for Chair.
Lots more after the jump —
On the Presidential front, Ron Paul pulled about 14% support in Buncombe County, largely on the Tim Peck pancake breakfast crowd. Paul came in just behind Mike Huckabee, leaving the victorious John McCain with only 64% of Buncombe County Republican votes. Statewide McCain did much better, of course, but I thought y’all’d be interested.
Kay Hagan really obliterated Jim Neal. Embarrassingly so. Crusher. Ouch. Will Hagan be able to discover a public persona by the time the campaign for the general revs up?
The governor’s race will be Bev Perdue vs. Pat McCrory. Perdue’s the prohibitive favorite despite the growing antipathy towards her current boss, Mike Easley. In Buncombe County, Republicans went for Fred Smith.
Progressives split their votes in the Lieutenant Governor’s race, allowing conservative Dem Walter Dalton to slip into the lead. Dalton will face Robert Pittenger for the post in November.
June Atkinson handily won her primary for Superintendent of Public Instruction, and she’ll face Republican Richard Morgan.
Wynn and Ervin won our Court of Appeals races.
Heath Shuler will cast his superdelegate vote for Hillary Clinton in Denver come August. Shuler chose to allow the voters of the 11th District to decide who he ought to back. While I believe that Shuler had a good idea of who was going to win the district, the principle is still the right one. I wonder if Carol Peterson will utilize a similar principle and represent the wishes of her constituents in Buncombe County, who gave Barack Obama an 11 point victory here.
Lastly – despite the Republican Establishment beginning to jump off the McHenry bus, Patty handily defeated his challenger 67-33. He’ll face the superior Daniel Johnson in the general.
Thanks to everyone who turned out to the Asheville Brewing Company last night. It was a great night. It’s a good thing the fire marshall didn’t come by.
Your turn – What didn’t I mention?
39 Comments
May 7th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Good roundup, G.
I saw this over @ Electoral Vote Predictor a few minutes ago, thought it was interesting enough to share:
Yep, that’s Buncombe and Watauga (due in large part to ASU, no doubt) swimming in a WNC sea of Hillary.
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:17 am
I wanna point out that Holly Jones got more votes in Buncombe County than Obama did.
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Holly received about a thousand votes less than all of the republican candidates combined.
Holly Jones’ votes: 30,535
All Republicans’ votes: 31,802
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May 7th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
“On the Presidential front, Ron Paul pulled about 14% support in Buncombe County, largely on the Tim Peck pancake breakfast crowd.”
what the heck is that supposed to mean???
from my perspective, it looks like out of those showing up to vote in Buncombe Cty., 14% have some kind of idea what liberty means for the potential future of America, while the rest are largely deceived.
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May 7th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
I was making a joke, bernard, but your reactivity underlines for me why Ron Paul supporters are so insufferable. It’s preach, preach, preach, and you’re stupid if you disagree. Your statement indicates that the rest of the voters have no idea what liberty means.
That’s a really ridiculous and dismissive thing to say.
Ron Paul 2012!
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
I don’t mean to appear dull but what is the “pancake breakfast crowd”?
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
…just be sure to remind me to take some dramamine in Nov. before assaying the Buncombe Co Board of Elections site. That riduculous scrolling is SO 1999!
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Whatevs, Gordon. You’re just another one of the sheeple.
/sarcasm
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Personally, I’m all about pancakes. But I really prefer waffles.
“A waffle is like a pancake with a syrup trap.” – Mitch Hedberg
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
better pancakes than Kool Aid…
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May 7th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Tim,
Just something that came off my fingers this morning – I don’t know what it means either.
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May 7th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Clinton may have picked up Shuler’s support yesterday, but today three more superdelegates landed in the Obama column, two of which are from NC – Jeanette Council and Jerry Meek.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/07/992182.aspx
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May 7th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
w00t!
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May 7th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
National Journal claims Shuler’s a Republican, then slams Mumpower:
“And finally, Rep. Heath Shuler (R-NC 11) appears to have lucked out again. First, GOPers couldn’t recruit a top-tier challenger to take him on in the GOP-leaning CD. Now, they’re on their way to nominating a candidate who Dems believe is very flawed, Asheville Councilor Carl Mumpower (R).”
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May 7th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
…Obama’s strong with lots of groups…
State — Demographic — % of vote – % for Obama
IN: People with college degrees 35 56
NC: People with college degrees 44 57
IN: First time primary voters 19 69
NC: First time primary voters 22 60
IN: Independents 23 54
NC: Independents 19 45*
IN: Liberals 39 56
NC: Liberals 42 63
IN: Urban 33 60
NC: Urban 27 66
IN: White 17-29 year-olds 12 54
NC: White 17-29 year-olds 8 57
IN: All 17-29 year-olds 17 61
NC: All 17-29 year-olds 14 74
IN: 17-64 year-olds 86 52
NC: 17-64 year-olds 80 60
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May 7th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Yltn s nt nrly s strtypclly rght wng s fllw stmpr Chd Nsbtt. H’s rlly lt mr lk Bthwll thn mst r wllng t dmt bcs bth Yltn nd Bthwll r bsclly lcl crrptn hntrs nd ’m cmgnng fr nd dntng my lst pnns t Yltn bcs h s th nly n trst t cnsstntly fght znng nd ths prtct Bncmb tnnts frm th nlmtd rnt hks tht znng wld cs.
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May 7th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
ls vtd fr Rn Pl bcs h s th nly cnddt n tht mnr rc wh knw t b nt-znng nd wh wld bn znng ntnwd.
n rltd nt, ws fndng mmbr f shvll DF ftr spprtng Hwrd Dn, Bt dn’t rmmbr Dn vr spprtng znng nd wld nvr hv spprtd hm f h hd, bt dspt my ntrnl ffrts, DF shvll hs bcm vrtlly pr-znng clb. ls pps Dn’s 50 stt strtgy, bt thnk shvll DF hs gn n drctn Dn nvr ntndd. Dn ws nvr fr mch gn cntrl thr, Bt shvll DF s. kp my DF mmbrshp s tht cn cntn t vt n ntrnlly, bt t sn’t gd fr mch ls.
nstd f th 50 stt strtgy, Dn shld b sng hs nrgy t vct Dmcrts frm hplss mnrty stts nd rlct thm t vt n swng stts mch s thy hlpd mmgrnts gt ctznshp n tm fr th 1996 lctns. Bt f crs znng wld hndr mss pltcl rlctn bcs rlctng Dmcrts wld hv t bld hms.
f ll Dmcrts nd ll Rpblcns wld jst mv t dffrnt stts thn w cld ll b rd f ch thr.
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May 7th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Alan,
You’re right about the corruption hunting, but that’s where the similarities b/w Yelton and Bothwell end.
I understand that you’re something of a martyr re: zoning, but the fact is that zoning exists in most populated parts of this nation. It allows for land and urban planning. You’ve said it’s racist or some such thing, but nothing you’ve ever said has supported that thesis. And, in case you hadn’t noticed, rents were going up pretty well before the zoning vote.
Re: Howard Dean – He was for gun control in urban areas and for less of it in rural areas. Dean’s 50-state strategy has borne amazing fruit. A Democrat just won a special election in LA-06, a place that went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004. By contesting every election, we can win more elections. There are no hopeless minority states, as evidenced by the LA win, by Senator Tester in Montana, and by Joe Sestak in PA. I just reread your comment, and I think you’re advocating mass migration in order to win more races.
That sounds pretty crazy. No… it sounds really, really crazy. If you’re pro-Yelton, pro-Dean, and pro-Paul, where will you live? The red states won’t have you, and neither will the blues. I guess the polyamorous will have their own state? Which one? I’m voting for Idaho.
We’ve yet to agree on anything, Alan. I hope that changes, but so far we’re just not very compatible.
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
nice live-blogging and coverage, hooligans!
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Zoning as an issue? Hard as I’ve tried, I just don’t get it. I don’t get Ron Paul either so maybe I’m just shallow. All I really know about him other than an internal comparison to Lyndon LaRoach from reading his web site, is that white supremicist neo-nazis seem to really dig him.
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May 7th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
big notice by me: gay marriage and abortion have been totally off the radar.
Thank all eleven gods and realities!
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May 8th, 2008 at 9:57 am
I was against zoning as well initially, then I got a bit more educated about it. Zoning helps buffer residential areas from plans to introduce factories and plants.
Without zoning Weaverville residents would have no voice on the concrete plant that a company wants to locate on a very busy road within 5 miles of four large public schools.
Zoning is their, IMO, to protect neighborhoods, not infringe on their rights.
By the way Alan, how is one a gun control advocate but still a Ron Paul supporter? Isn’t Paul a big believer in the right to bear arms?
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May 8th, 2008 at 9:59 am
I think Alan’s against gun control, Bobaloo.
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May 8th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Zoning is *there*… Grr, I hate doing that!
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May 8th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Ah, pardon me, I misread that.
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May 8th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
blv nrthrn Nvd s prbbly th stt fr m, Rpblcn stt wth lgl brthls. nd m dvlpng my frm n prprtn t mgrt thr, nlss th Fr Cnty Prjct n Wst Txs gts ff th grnd. BTW, Rs Prks rtrd nd dd n Dtrt, nt lbm whr sh md hr fm, n xcllnt xmpl f pltcl mgrtn.
nd n lk t Hndrsnvll Rd. Dvdng Shlh frm Bltmr Frst prvs th rcsm f znng bynd ny dbt whtsvr.
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< hrf="http://www.cty-dt.cm/frm/plt.../68190-pltcl-twns-xtrm-plcs-pltcl-rlctn.html" rl="nfllw">http://www.cty-dt.cm/frm/plt…/68190-pltcl-twns-xtrm-plcs-pltcl-rlctn.html
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May 8th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Wow, interesting reads Alan, thanks. I’m here from Oklahoma, does that count?
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May 8th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Your first two links say “Page Not Found”. I’m not clicking any more, Alan.
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May 8th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
This is just a friendly reminder to those who haven’t done so: before leaving comments, please take a minute or two to read our comments policy by clicking the link between the text box and the “Submit Comment” button. Under the “Using HTML” section, it states that:
I fished this last one out for you, Alan. The less often we have to manually override spam comments, the easier all of our lives will be, capisci?
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:28 am
My frst fr lnks hv bn tkn dwn r mvd wtht my knwldg. t jst gs t shw tht nd t dwnld nd cpy vrythng f ntrst nd nt jst sv th lnk. dd cpy th Dly Ml pc bt lst ll my wrk n Cty-Dt. Sm hv mvd nd ’m wrkng n fndng thm t rpst.
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f Rndll lft klhm fr pltcl rsns thn ys t cnts.
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Dmn. rd tht s mr thn 4 nd lst thm ll gn. sm f my lnks hv mvd nd m fndng thm gn nd sm, lk Cty-Dt, hv lst ll my wrk, bt cpd th Dly Ml rtcl jst clck n my nm bv. Jst gs t shw tht cn’t trst rfrnc lnk fr ny prd f tm nd mst dwnld nd cpy. nd Ys, f Rndll mvd frm klhm fr pltcl rsns thn t cnts. mvd sth frm M prtly bcs ZNNG hd drvn p rnts s hgh, whch s pltcl rsn, nd prtly d t clmt nd th cst f htng l, whch s why ’m nt mvng t Prtlnd M.
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Nw wht?? nly pstd thr lnks tht tm nd t ddn’t pst. s tht spm fltr prmnnt? f s, ’m gng bck t Mntn xprss.
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:53 am
< hrf="http://n.wkpd.rg/wk/Cscd_%28ndpndnc_mvmnt%29" rl="nfllw">http://n.wkpd.rg/wk/Cscd_%28ndpndnc_mvmnt%29
< hrf="http://bcnws.g.cm/srch?srchtxt=Prtlnd%20cntrcptn&typ" rl="nfllw">http://bcnws.g.cm/srch?srchtxt=Prtlnd%20cntrcptn&typ=
Ys rndll, f y lft klhm vn prtly fr pltcl rsns thn tht cnts. lft Msschstts bcs t hd t mch ZNNG!! whch hd rsd rnts t hgh, bt t ws ls t crwdd nd t cld, whch s why dn’t mv t Prtlnd M.
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:55 am
< hrf="http://bcnws.g.cm/srch?srchtxt=Prtlnd%20cntrcptn&typ" rl="nfllw">http://bcnws.g.cm/srch?srchtxt=Prtlnd%20cntrcptn&typ=
Ys rndll, f y lft klhm vn prtly fr pltcl rsns thn tht cnts. lft Msschstts bcs t hd t mch ZNNG!! whch hd rsd rnts t hgh, bt t ws ls t crwdd nd t cld, whch s why dn’t mv t Prtlnd M.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:00 am
t lks lk t’s nly gvng m n lnk pr cmmnt nw. s wll hv t pst th pdtd lnks n mltpl cmmnts. Th kp chngng lnks n m. Lckly cpd th Dly-Ml rtcl, clck n my nm bv, bt my Cty-Dt wrk pprs t b gn.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Here’s what happened. One of your comments had four URLS. It triggered Akismet (the spam filter we and nearly every WordPress-based website uses). Because of that initial flag, some of your subsequent comments landed in there as well. It acts squirrely at times, but if you saw the kind of comment spam that we get (sometimes more than 100 a day, no kidding) that Akismet blocks, you would change your tune about us having one in the first place. And no, we’re not going to disable it.
You’re welcome to leave comments here, but if our running a spam filter is a dealbreaker for you… well, like they say, “don’t let the door hit you where the good Lord split you.”
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:29 am
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Ppl rcntly md hmlss drctly by ZNNG! n ddtn t ll th ndrct hmlss.
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May 9th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
I hear the Mountain Xpress is really fun.
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