The Morning AfterBy
First things first. Y’all should know I’m currently tucking into a supersize plate of crow for predicting a Campbell victory over Army of Mumpower. I have a side plate for predicting a Stanley defeat.
Hot Carl pulled 48.08% to Campbell’s 42.30%. Armor couldn’t break 10. Carl’s fantastic performance in Buncombe County appears to have sealed his victory – 72.71% of the Republican voters here pulled the lever for teh mump. Of the 19,585 votes Mumpower received, 7,841 of them came from Buncombe. In all, Mumpower won nine counties to Campbell’s six.
Buncombe County voter turnout was 38.06% – 62,730 people cast a ballot.
The County Commission race is now a muddled miasma. Holly Jones is the clear front-runner, having pulled 30,535 votes or 21.45% in the primary balloting. No one else came close to that.
K. Ray Bailey: 21,268 / 14.94%;
Carol Weir Peterson: 19,655 / 13.81%;
Bill Stanley: 17,499 / 12.29%.
Cecil Bothwell missed the cut by about a thousand votes.
On the Republican side, Don Yelton surprised the conventional wisdom by swinging into third. And the vote totals draw a stark comparison regarding partisan interest in this primary. Mike Fryar came in a surprising dead last.
Joe “Dr. No” Dunn: 7,656 / 24.07%
John “CIBO” Carroll: 6,294 / 19.79%
Stompin’ Don Yelton: 5,521 / 17.36%
Ron “Expat” McKee: 5,181 / 16.29%
So the November race is muddled. Holly Jones and K. Ray Bailey will be the prohibitive favorites. If Republicans come out to support Democratic incumbent (and lone Democratic No Zoning vote) Bill Stanley, then he could win a sixth term. Dunn and Carroll will likely pull a lot of support, and both have a chance. That leaves Carol Peterson in an unlikely dogfight with Don Yelton and Ron McKee. If I had to guess today, I’d say we’re going to be looking at a 3-2 County Commission with David Gantt defeating Nathan Ramsey for Chair.
Lots more after the jump —
On the Presidential front, Ron Paul pulled about 14% support in Buncombe County, largely on the Tim Peck pancake breakfast crowd. Paul came in just behind Mike Huckabee, leaving the victorious John McCain with only 64% of Buncombe County Republican votes. Statewide McCain did much better, of course, but I thought y’all’d be interested.
Kay Hagan really obliterated Jim Neal. Embarrassingly so. Crusher. Ouch. Will Hagan be able to discover a public persona by the time the campaign for the general revs up?
The governor’s race will be Bev Perdue vs. Pat McCrory. Perdue’s the prohibitive favorite despite the growing antipathy towards her current boss, Mike Easley. In Buncombe County, Republicans went for Fred Smith.
Progressives split their votes in the Lieutenant Governor’s race, allowing conservative Dem Walter Dalton to slip into the lead. Dalton will face Robert Pittenger for the post in November.
June Atkinson handily won her primary for Superintendent of Public Instruction, and she’ll face Republican Richard Morgan.
Wynn and Ervin won our Court of Appeals races.
Heath Shuler will cast his superdelegate vote for Hillary Clinton in Denver come August. Shuler chose to allow the voters of the 11th District to decide who he ought to back. While I believe that Shuler had a good idea of who was going to win the district, the principle is still the right one. I wonder if Carol Peterson will utilize a similar principle and represent the wishes of her constituents in Buncombe County, who gave Barack Obama an 11 point victory here.
Lastly – despite the Republican Establishment beginning to jump off the McHenry bus, Patty handily defeated his challenger 67-33. He’ll face the superior Daniel Johnson in the general.
Thanks to everyone who turned out to the Asheville Brewing Company last night. It was a great night. It’s a good thing the fire marshall didn’t come by.
Your turn – What didn’t I mention?