May
07

The Morning After

By

crow.jpgWhat a wild night.

First things first. Y’all should know I’m currently tucking into a supersize plate of crow for predicting a Campbell victory over Army of Mumpower. I have a side plate for predicting a Stanley defeat.

Hot Carl pulled 48.08% to Campbell’s 42.30%. Armor couldn’t break 10. Carl’s fantastic performance in Buncombe County appears to have sealed his victory – 72.71% of the Republican voters here pulled the lever for teh mump. Of the 19,585 votes Mumpower received, 7,841 of them came from Buncombe. In all, Mumpower won nine counties to Campbell’s six.

Buncombe County voter turnout was 38.06% – 62,730 people cast a ballot.

The County Commission race is now a muddled miasma. Holly Jones is the clear front-runner, having pulled 30,535 votes or 21.45% in the primary balloting. No one else came close to that.

K. Ray Bailey: 21,268 / 14.94%;
Carol Weir Peterson: 19,655 / 13.81%;
Bill Stanley: 17,499 / 12.29%.

Cecil Bothwell missed the cut by about a thousand votes.

On the Republican side, Don Yelton surprised the conventional wisdom by swinging into third. And the vote totals draw a stark comparison regarding partisan interest in this primary. Mike Fryar came in a surprising dead last.

Joe “Dr. No” Dunn: 7,656 / 24.07%
John “CIBO” Carroll: 6,294 / 19.79%
Stompin’ Don Yelton: 5,521 / 17.36%
Ron “Expat” McKee: 5,181 / 16.29%

So the November race is muddled. Holly Jones and K. Ray Bailey will be the prohibitive favorites. If Republicans come out to support Democratic incumbent (and lone Democratic No Zoning vote) Bill Stanley, then he could win a sixth term. Dunn and Carroll will likely pull a lot of support, and both have a chance. That leaves Carol Peterson in an unlikely dogfight with Don Yelton and Ron McKee. If I had to guess today, I’d say we’re going to be looking at a 3-2 County Commission with David Gantt defeating Nathan Ramsey for Chair.

Lots more after the jump —


heat-miser.jpgOn the Presidential front, Ron Paul pulled about 14% support in Buncombe County, largely on the Tim Peck pancake breakfast crowd. Paul came in just behind Mike Huckabee, leaving the victorious John McCain with only 64% of Buncombe County Republican votes. Statewide McCain did much better, of course, but I thought y’all’d be interested.

Kay Hagan really obliterated Jim Neal. Embarrassingly so. Crusher. Ouch. Will Hagan be able to discover a public persona by the time the campaign for the general revs up?

The governor’s race will be Bev Perdue vs. Pat McCrory. Perdue’s the prohibitive favorite despite the growing antipathy towards her current boss, Mike Easley. In Buncombe County, Republicans went for Fred Smith.

Progressives split their votes in the Lieutenant Governor’s race, allowing conservative Dem Walter Dalton to slip into the lead. Dalton will face Robert Pittenger for the post in November.

June Atkinson handily won her primary for Superintendent of Public Instruction, and she’ll face Republican Richard Morgan.

Wynn and Ervin won our Court of Appeals races.

Heath Shuler will cast his superdelegate vote for Hillary Clinton in Denver come August. Shuler chose to allow the voters of the 11th District to decide who he ought to back. While I believe that Shuler had a good idea of who was going to win the district, the principle is still the right one. I wonder if Carol Peterson will utilize a similar principle and represent the wishes of her constituents in Buncombe County, who gave Barack Obama an 11 point victory here.

Lastly – despite the Republican Establishment beginning to jump off the McHenry bus, Patty handily defeated his challenger 67-33. He’ll face the superior Daniel Johnson in the general.

Thanks to everyone who turned out to the Asheville Brewing Company last night. It was a great night. It’s a good thing the fire marshall didn’t come by.

Your turn – What didn’t I mention?


Comments

  1. Arratik says:

    Good roundup, G.

    I saw this over @ Electoral Vote Predictor a few minutes ago, thought it was interesting enough to share:

    Yep, that’s Buncombe and Watauga (due in large part to ASU, no doubt) swimming in a WNC sea of Hillary.

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  2. David Roat says:

    I wanna point out that Holly Jones got more votes in Buncombe County than Obama did.

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  3. Bryan Freeborn says:

    Holly received about a thousand votes less than all of the republican candidates combined.

    Holly Jones’ votes: 30,535
    All Republicans’ votes: 31,802

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  4. “On the Presidential front, Ron Paul pulled about 14% support in Buncombe County, largely on the Tim Peck pancake breakfast crowd.”

    what the heck is that supposed to mean???

    from my perspective, it looks like out of those showing up to vote in Buncombe Cty., 14% have some kind of idea what liberty means for the potential future of America, while the rest are largely deceived.

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  5. Gordon Smith says:

    I was making a joke, bernard, but your reactivity underlines for me why Ron Paul supporters are so insufferable. It’s preach, preach, preach, and you’re stupid if you disagree. Your statement indicates that the rest of the voters have no idea what liberty means.

    That’s a really ridiculous and dismissive thing to say.

    Ron Paul 2012!

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  6. Tim Peck says:

    I don’t mean to appear dull but what is the “pancake breakfast crowd”?

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  7. xty says:

    …just be sure to remind me to take some dramamine in Nov. before assaying the Buncombe Co Board of Elections site. That riduculous scrolling is SO 1999!

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  8. bobaloo says:

    Whatevs, Gordon. You’re just another one of the sheeple.

    /sarcasm

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  9. Arratik says:

    Personally, I’m all about pancakes. But I really prefer waffles.

    “A waffle is like a pancake with a syrup trap.” – Mitch Hedberg

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  10. better pancakes than Kool Aid…

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  11. Gordon Smith says:

    Tim,

    Just something that came off my fingers this morning – I don’t know what it means either.

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  12. Arratik says:

    Clinton may have picked up Shuler’s support yesterday, but today three more superdelegates landed in the Obama column, two of which are from NC – Jeanette Council and Jerry Meek.

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/07/992182.aspx

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  13. Gordon Smith says:

    w00t!

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  14. Gordon Smith says:

    National Journal claims Shuler’s a Republican, then slams Mumpower:

    “And finally, Rep. Heath Shuler (R-NC 11) appears to have lucked out again. First, GOPers couldn’t recruit a top-tier challenger to take him on in the GOP-leaning CD. Now, they’re on their way to nominating a candidate who Dems believe is very flawed, Asheville Councilor Carl Mumpower (R).”

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  15. Gordon Smith says:

    Obama’s strong with lots of groups

    State — Demographic — % of vote – % for Obama

    IN: People with college degrees 35 56
    NC: People with college degrees 44 57

    IN: First time primary voters 19 69
    NC: First time primary voters 22 60

    IN: Independents 23 54
    NC: Independents 19 45*

    IN: Liberals 39 56
    NC: Liberals 42 63

    IN: Urban 33 60
    NC: Urban 27 66

    IN: White 17-29 year-olds 12 54
    NC: White 17-29 year-olds 8 57

    IN: All 17-29 year-olds 17 61
    NC: All 17-29 year-olds 14 74

    IN: 17-64 year-olds 86 52
    NC: 17-64 year-olds 80 60

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  16. Alan Ditmore says:

    Yelton is not nearly as stereotypically right wing as fellow stomper Chad Nesbitt. He’s really a lot more like Bothwell than most are willing to admit because both Yelton and Bothwell are basically local corruption hunters and I’m camaigning for and donating my last pennies to Yelton because he is the only one I trust to consistantly fight zoning and thus protect Buncombe tenants from the unlimited rent hikes that zoning would cause.

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  17. Alan Ditmore says:

    I also voted for Ron Paul because he is the only candidate in that minor race who I know to be anti-zoning and who would ban zoning nationwide.
    On a related note, I was a founding member of Asheville DFA after supporting Howard Dean, But I don’t remember Dean ever supporting zoning and would never have supported him if he had, but despite my internal efforts, DFA Asheville has become virtually a pro-zoning club. I also oppose Dean’s 50 state strategy, but I think Asheville DFA has gone in a direction Dean never intended. Dean was never for much gun control either, But Asheville DFA is. I keep my DFA membership so that I can continue to vote no internally, but it isn’t good for much else.
    Instead of the 50 state strategy, Dean should be using his energy to evacuate Democrats from hopeless minority states and relocate them to vote in swing states much as they helped immigrants get citizenship in time for the 1996 elections. But of course zoning would hinder mass political relocation because relocating Democrats would have to build homes.
    If all Democrats and all Republicans would just move to different states then we could all be rid of each other.

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  18. Gordon Smith says:

    Alan,

    You’re right about the corruption hunting, but that’s where the similarities b/w Yelton and Bothwell end.

    I understand that you’re something of a martyr re: zoning, but the fact is that zoning exists in most populated parts of this nation. It allows for land and urban planning. You’ve said it’s racist or some such thing, but nothing you’ve ever said has supported that thesis. And, in case you hadn’t noticed, rents were going up pretty well before the zoning vote.

    Re: Howard Dean – He was for gun control in urban areas and for less of it in rural areas. Dean’s 50-state strategy has borne amazing fruit. A Democrat just won a special election in LA-06, a place that went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004. By contesting every election, we can win more elections. There are no hopeless minority states, as evidenced by the LA win, by Senator Tester in Montana, and by Joe Sestak in PA. I just reread your comment, and I think you’re advocating mass migration in order to win more races.

    That sounds pretty crazy. No… it sounds really, really crazy. If you’re pro-Yelton, pro-Dean, and pro-Paul, where will you live? The red states won’t have you, and neither will the blues. I guess the polyamorous will have their own state? Which one? I’m voting for Idaho.

    We’ve yet to agree on anything, Alan. I hope that changes, but so far we’re just not very compatible.

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  19. Ashvegas says:

    nice live-blogging and coverage, hooligans!

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  20. randallt says:

    Zoning as an issue? Hard as I’ve tried, I just don’t get it. I don’t get Ron Paul either so maybe I’m just shallow. All I really know about him other than an internal comparison to Lyndon LaRoach from reading his web site, is that white supremicist neo-nazis seem to really dig him.

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  21. xty says:

    big notice by me: gay marriage and abortion have been totally off the radar.
    Thank all eleven gods and realities!

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  22. bobaloo says:

    I was against zoning as well initially, then I got a bit more educated about it. Zoning helps buffer residential areas from plans to introduce factories and plants.
    Without zoning Weaverville residents would have no voice on the concrete plant that a company wants to locate on a very busy road within 5 miles of four large public schools.
    Zoning is their, IMO, to protect neighborhoods, not infringe on their rights.

    By the way Alan, how is one a gun control advocate but still a Ron Paul supporter? Isn’t Paul a big believer in the right to bear arms?

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  23. Gordon Smith says:

    I think Alan’s against gun control, Bobaloo.

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  24. bobaloo says:

    Zoning is *there*… Grr, I hate doing that!

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  25. bobaloo says:

    Ah, pardon me, I misread that.

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  26. Alan Ditmore says:

    I believe northern Nevada is probably the state for me, a Republican state with legal brothels. And I am developing my farm in preparation to migrate there, unless the Free County Project in West Texas gets off the ground. BTW, Rosa Parks retired and died in Detroit, not Alabama where she made her fame, an excellent example of political migration.
    And one look at Hendersonville Rd. Dividing Shiloh from Biltmore Forest proves the racism of zoning beyond any doubt whatsoever.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv…n_article_id=495495&in_page_id=1&in_page_id=1&expand=true

    http://www.city-data.com/forum/polit…/68190-political-towns-extreme-places-political-relocation.html

    http://groups.google.com/group/alt.s…_thread/thread/433390c60614cc23/442c33182294bb85?hl=en
    http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Turning…3747045&page=1
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Why_breed/
    http://freetownproject.com/
    http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=2140483&page=1
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Exodus
    http://christianexodus.org
    http://www.abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=3401106
    http://www.projectprevention.org

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  27. randallt says:

    Wow, interesting reads Alan, thanks. I’m here from Oklahoma, does that count?

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  28. Gordon Smith says:

    Your first two links say “Page Not Found”. I’m not clicking any more, Alan.

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  29. This is just a friendly reminder to those who haven’t done so: before leaving comments, please take a minute or two to read our comments policy by clicking the link between the text box and the “Submit Comment” button. Under the “Using HTML” section, it states that:

    inserting four or more URLs inside a comment will trigger the spam filter.

    I fished this last one out for you, Alan. The less often we have to manually override spam comments, the easier all of our lives will be, capisci?

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  30. Alan Ditmore says:

    My first four links have been taken down or moved without my knowledge. It just goes to show that I need to download and copy everything of interest and not just save the link. I did copy the Daily Mail piece but lost all my work on City-Data. Some have moved and I’m working on finding them to repost.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_%28independence_movement%29
    http://www.docendi.org/political-t28899.html
    http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=4684161
    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=3764688

    If Randall left Oklahoma for political reasons then yes it counts.

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  31. Alan Ditmore says:

    Damn. I read that as more than 4 and lost them all again. some of my links have moved and I am finding them again and some, like City-Data, have lost all my work, but I copied the Daily Mail article just click on my name above. Just goes to show that I can’t trust a reference link for any period of time and must download and copy. And Yes, If Randall moved from Oklahoma for political reasons then it counts. I moved south from MA partly because ZONING had driven up rents so high, which is a political reason, and partly due to climate and the cost of heating oil, which is why I’m not moving to Portland ME.

    http://abcnews.go.com/search?searchtext=Portland%20contraception&type=
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_%28independence_movement%29
    http://groups.google.com/group/alt.support.childfree?hl=en

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  32. Alan Ditmore says:

    Now what?? I only posted three links that time and it didn’t post. Is that spam filter permanent? If so, I’m going back to Mountain Express.

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  33. Alan Ditmore says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_%28independence_movement%29
    http://abcnews.go.com/search?searchtext=Portland%20contraception&type=

    Yes randall, if you left Oklahoma even partly for political reasons then that counts. I left Massachusetts because it had too much ZONING!! which had raised rents too high, but it was also too crowded and too cold, which is why I don’t move to Portland ME.

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  34. Alan Ditmore says:

    http://abcnews.go.com/search?searchtext=Portland%20contraception&type=

    Yes randall, if you left Oklahoma even partly for political reasons then that counts. I left Massachusetts because it had too much ZONING!! which had raised rents too high, but it was also too crowded and too cold, which is why I don’t move to Portland ME.

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  35. Alan Ditmore says:

    It looks like it’s only giving me one link per comment now. so I will have to post the updated links in multiple comments. The keep changing links on me. Luckily I copied the Daily-Mail article, click on my name above, but my City-Data work appears to be gone.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_%28independence_movement%29

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  36. Now what?? I only posted three links that time and it didn’t post. Is that spam filter permanent? If so, I’m going back to Mountain Express.

    Here’s what happened. One of your comments had four URLS. It triggered Akismet (the spam filter we and nearly every WordPress-based website uses). Because of that initial flag, some of your subsequent comments landed in there as well. It acts squirrely at times, but if you saw the kind of comment spam that we get (sometimes more than 100 a day, no kidding) that Akismet blocks, you would change your tune about us having one in the first place. And no, we’re not going to disable it.

    You’re welcome to leave comments here, but if our running a spam filter is a dealbreaker for you… well, like they say, “don’t let the door hit you where the good Lord split you.”

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  37. Alan Ditmore says:

    People recently made homeless directly by ZONING! in addition to all the indirect homeless.

    http://www.mountainx.com/search/results/952a5e1f975ab604596539be2eacc5bb/
    http://www.mountainx.com/search/results/ff0a14cba8933c2b1f96b9a8965412c8/

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  38. Gordon Smith says:

    I hear the Mountain Xpress is really fun.

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